Soybeans–
Soybeans had another quiet day. It seems like traders may be preparing for the holiday. China is starting weekly soybean auctions from their reserves to supply crushers, will increase the demand for new imports. South America has been the primary supplier for China, but that could change if trade deal gets done. US export prices are still competitive. LSEG raised their US soybean production estimate to 117 mt, versus the USDA’s estimate 116.82. For the week ending August 21, sales came in at 2,089,700 mt, within the estimate of 1,200,00-2,600,000 mt. Top buyers for the week were Colombia, Spain, and Vietnam.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1028 (+1), high of 1030, low of 1019. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1048 (+0.50), high of 1049, low of 1039. Cash price is at 1020 (-2)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 286.3 (-6.9) high of 293.5, low of 282.6
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 51.75 (-0.72) high of 52.63, low of 51.56
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.77% Meal – 47.23% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1029) 5-day, (1005) 20-day, (1009) 50-day, (1017) 100-day, (1019) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1050) 5-day, (1025) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (287.0) 5-day, (284.4) 20-day, (281.7) 50-day, (291.8) 100-day, (302.1) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (53.43) 5-day, (53.10) 20-day, (53.89) 50-day, (51.28) 100-day, (47.55) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 385 (+3), high of 387, low of 379. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 410 (+4). Cash price is 394 (-5)
Corn traded 5 cents higher today, after trading 1/2 cent higher in the overnight. The EU corn production estimate was cut 4 mt to 55 mt, while US production was adjusted slightly higher to 415 mt. The USDA estimates production at 435.6 mb. LSEG estimates corn yield at 185.4, compared to the USDA at 188.8 bpa and Pro Farmer at 182 bpa. Corn open interest fell by 4000 contracts yesterday, which is now the lowest open interest since last September. Bullish traders remain in control, with corn staying above 400.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (386) 5-day, (382) 20-day, (396) 50-day, (415) 100-day, (431) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (409) 5-day, (405) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (431) 100-day, (441) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 510 (+8), with a high of 511, low of 499. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 529 (+4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 471 (-7). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 486 (+1).
Wheat had some help from corn today, closing 5 cents higher. Open interest fell nearly 14,500 contracts yesterday, which could be a sign of more short covering. Argus raised their forecast for Russia’s wheat production to 86.1 mt, from 84.8 mb in June. The recent estimate for Russia’s crop is the 3rd largest on record. French ending stocks are estimated at 4 mt, which is the highest ending stocks seen in 20 years. Wheat exports could improve if the dollar weakens.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (506) 5-day, (508) 20-day, (531) 50-day, (543) 100-day, (565) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (529) 20-day, (552) 50-day, (564) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.