WALSH PURE SPREADER
– Pure Hedge Division –
Rich Moran 8/27/2025
Jan-July Soybean Spread (ZSF26-ZSN26)
The Jan-July Soybean Spread (ZSF26-ZSN26) was on a steady decline since February 5th when it got just above 0(zero) to +¼. It trended down until it hit its low of -45¾ on August 8th. Since August 11th, it has been fluttering and settling above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.
The outright January Soybean market (ZSF26) has been strong and staying above some very significant moving averages. On the daily chart, ZSF26 has remained comfortably above the 14-day ,21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. On the weekly chart, the same holds true for the 14-day, 21-day and 50-day moving averages.
These rumors of Trump okaying 600,000 Chinese college students into the US suggests to me the possibility of positive conversations between our two countries. Could that result in some sort of trade agreement between the US and China? In any case, if we figure things out with China to some degree, the soybean market might respond very positively. If this happens, the January ‘26 contract (ZSF26) could win the race up versus the July ’26 contract (ZSN26), resulting in the strengthening of this spread (ZSF26-ZSN26).
Today, ZSF26-ZSN26 ended up settling at -36. This settlement is just below the 14-day moving average (35½) and the 21-day moving average (35¾). If we can get back above and settle above these two moving averages, I think we should try buying the spread with a short stop below these moving averages.
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Following up on past trade ideas:
- 8/13/25: ZCZ25-ZOZ25 (DEC’25 Corn-Oats Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 74¾
If tomorrow (8/14/25) we find ZCZ25-ZOZ25 trading below 61¼, I suggest getting short the spread, but not below 59¼. Let’s use a short stop of 4 cents above our entry price, which will bring us slightly above the recent activity of the14-day and 21-day moving averages.
Risk 4 cents or $200 to make 16 cents or $800.
We were able to get short at 59¾ on 8/14/25, but we were stopped out the next day (8/15/25) at 63¼ for a $200 loss.
- 8/8/25: ZMU25-ZMF26 (SEP’25-JAN’26 Soybean Meal Spread)
Today’s Settlement: +1.4, Long at -11.7
Risking 4.0 (-15.7) or $400 Per Spread to make 10.0 (-1.7) or $1,000
Well, we were close, but no cigar on this one. We got stopped out at -15.7 on 8/8/25. It made its 52-week low at -16.3 the next day (8/9/25) and then proceeded to trade up to +9.5 on 8/25/25. Today it settled +1.4.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -19¼, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (-21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (-8) or $475
- 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 145.625, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.
- 7/30/25: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC’25 Wheat-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 118¼, Short at 132
Risk 5 cents (137) or $250 Per Spread to make 15 cents (117) or $750 Per Spread
We paid 117 on 8/22/25 for 15 cent or $750 profit per spread.
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -18¼, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
- 7/16/25 (6/20/2025): ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -23¼, Short at -17½
Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents (-26) or $425
We moved our stop up to -17½ to scratch. I hate turning winners into losers – I am now moving our stop down up to -21 so we will at least make (3½ cents or $175) what we were initially risking.
We paid -21 on 8/14/25 on a stop to lock in a profit of $175 per spread.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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