Soybeans–
Soybeans were quite again today after trading 2 1/4 cents higher in the overnight session. Lower temperatures are expected to continue over the next 2 weeks in the Midwest. The eastern part of the Midwest will be dry for the next week. China trade negotiators will head to DC for a meeting this week. Soybeans are trading above the 21-day moving average and the 50-day, with a series of higher highs and higher lows being made this month. New crop estimates for South America have reduced new crop Argentine soybean planted area by 500,000 ha, while Brazil’s harvested area is forecasted 2% higher.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1027 (-1), high of 1033, low of 1024. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1047 (-2), high of 1054, low of 1044. Cash price is at 1022 (+2)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 293.1 (-4.1) high of 299.7, low of 290.7
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.47 (-0.29) high of 53.00, low of 52.11
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.77% Meal – 47.23% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1030) 5-day, (1002) 20-day, (1009) 50-day, (1017) 100-day, (1019) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1051) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (295.7) 5-day, (283.6) 20-day, (280.1) 50-day, (290.6) 100-day, (301.5) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.62) 5-day, (53.35) 20-day, (54.06) 50-day, (51.33) 100-day, (47.70) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 382 (-5), high of 387, low of 381. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 406 (-3). Cash price is 399 (-1)
Corn was weaker today after several quiet days in a row. Open interest dropped by over 22k contracts yesterday, marking a 3-day decline in open interest of close to 95k contracts. The Midwest is expected to be cooler for the next 2 weeks. The eastern corn belt is dry and that is expected to continue for the rest of the week, with rain appearing again in the week two forecast. Looking abroad, Ukraine’s corn production estimate was raised 1 mt to 29 mt. In Argentina, corn is expected to see a 15% increase in planted area, while Brazil’s planted area is anticipated at a 1-2% rise. The average yield for Pioneer’s Iowa crop tour was 228.6 bushels per acre, compared to 219.8 last year and 209.2 in 2023.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (387) 5-day, (383) 20-day, (396) 50-day, (416) 100-day, (432) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (410) 5-day, (405) 20-day, (416) 50-day, (431) 100-day, (441) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 502 (-7), with a high of 510, low of 500. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 524 (-7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 479 (+2). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 485 (-7).
The trading range has been tighter for wheat recently, with wheat unable to pick a direction. Domestic exports will compete with Black Sea wheat when harvest finishes, along with Australian wheat. December KC wheat made new contract lows. Rain has put pressure on the KC contract. Rains over the next 5 days are expected in Kansas and Arkansas, as well as, parts of the south. The next support for September wheat is 520 and the low at 517.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (506) 5-day, (509) 20-day, (532) 50-day, (543) 100-day, (566) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (530) 20-day, (553) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.