Soybeans–
Soybean conditions are 69% good/excellent, up 1 point above last week. Last year at this time, soybean ratings were 67%. New crop exports are still extremely weak. The PNW ports that ship soybeans to China are still not doing any business. The Midwest will continue to be dry and cooler if the forecast holds. Rains are expected in parts of the South including, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. Short continue to unwind in the soybean market and in soybean meal. Soybeans could rally but upside is likely limited without trade deals.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1028 (+3), high of 1034, low of 1019. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1049 (+1), high of 1055, low of 1041. Cash price is at 1020 (-11)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 297.2 (+1.5) high of 299.5, low of 293
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.76 (-1.55) high of 54.34, low of 52.38
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.60% Meal – 47.40% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1028) 5-day, (1000) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1017) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1020) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (295.7) 5-day, (282.2) 20-day, (280.0) 50-day, (290.6) 100-day, (301.6) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.35) 5-day, (53.55) 20-day, (54.11) 50-day, (51.28) 100-day, (47.67) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 387 (-1), high of 392, low of 386. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 409 (-2). Cash price is 400 (+1)
Corn ratings are now 71% good/excellent, unchanged from the week prior. Last year at this time, corn ratings were 65%. More sideways trading could be in store for corn. Corn has traded above support at 400 but any rallies will likely be sold. Top corn importers last week were Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. Weather is forecasted to be cooler and dry in the Midwest the next 2 week, with parts of the South expected to see rainfall. Brazil’s second crop corn is 98% complete, while first crop corn is 3.2% complete.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (386) 5-day, (383) 20-day, (397) 50-day, (416) 100-day, (432) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (409) 5-day, (406) 20-day, (416) 50-day, (432) 100-day, (441) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 509 (+2), with a high of 512, low of 504. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 531 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 476 (+2). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 493 (-3).
Wheat was modestly higher today, after trading a half cent lower in the overnight session. Wheat could see more sideways trading going forward, with recent short covering and bearish fundamentals. Yesterday’s weekly exports showed inspections at a 12-year high for this week of the year. US winter wheat harvest is at 98% complete. Spring wheat harvest is over 50% complete. The next level to watch is 535 for December wheat.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (506) 5-day, (510) 20-day, (533) 50-day, (544) 100-day, (567) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (529) 5-day, (531) 20-day, (554) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (587) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.