Soybeans–
The Pro Farmer crop tour has now ended. In Minnesota, 20 soybean samples were taken, with an average of 1128 per 3×3 square. The highest bean counts seen in samples taken were 1578 and the lowest was 332. Minnesota’s figures this year are 6 percent higher than last year, with minimal disease spotted. Iowa beans had an average pod count of 1,348.38, showing Iowa beans are on pace for good maturity. The drought monitor showed a 6% increase in drought areas. Yesterday’s rally came with an increase in open interest by 13,500 contracts, indicating new long positions being initiated. Buyers have been stepping up, despite the lack of Chinese purchases. Top buyers of US soybeans this week were Mexico, Spain, Pakistan, and unknown. Cumulative exports are 12.6% of the USDA’s forecast for new crop beans, compared to the 5-year average at 25.2%
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1036 (+2), high of 1040, low of 1030. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1058 (+2), high of 1062, low of 1052. Cash price is at 1028 (+20)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 296.7 (-0.1) high of 301.6, low of 292.5
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 58.54 (+1.20) high of 55.60, low of 51.41
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.53% Meal – 47.47% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1024) 5-day, (996) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1017) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1045) 5-day, (1016) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (290.7) 5-day, (279.3) 20-day, (280.1) 50-day, (290.7) 100-day, (301.8) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (52.93) 5-day, (53.87) 20-day, (53.95) 50-day, (51.17) 100-day, (47.59) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 30,660 contracts bringing their bringing their net short to -35,270 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,786 contracts bringing their net short position to -86,016 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -36,686 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,283 contracts, bringing their net short position of -109,309 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -20,576 contracts bringing their net short position to -49,768. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -57,084 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,412 contracts after selling -10,527 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 67,300 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 388 (+1), high of 389, low of 385. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 411 (+0.25). Cash price is 398 (+7)
The Pro Farmer tour found the best corn Minnesota has ever seen on Day 4 of the tour. Corn samples averaged 217 bpa, with a high of 277 bpa and low of 198 bpa. Last year’s average yield was 171 bpa. Iowa beat last year’s yield at 18.43 bpa, versus last year at 192.79 bpa. The drought monitor showed an increase in corn areas under drought from 1% to 5%, compared to 7% last year. The Midwest forecast is showing drier weather for the next 2 weeks along with cooler temperatures. The southern Plains are expected to see rains in the 6-14 day forecast. Exports are now 22.8% of the USDA forecast for new crop corn, compared to the 5-year average at 18.1%.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (383) 5-day, (384) 20-day, (399) 50-day, (417) 100-day, (433) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (407) 5-day, (406) 20-day, (418) 50-day, (433) 100-day, (441) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,364 contracts bringing their net position to -176,114 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -5,345 contracts bringing their net position to -30,872. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -195,710 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 504 (-2), with a high of 509, low of 503. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 476 (+1). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 498 (-5).
Wheat closed lower again on Friday. Wheat could see a bounce if some funds decide to cover their shorts, however the trend remains bearish. Winter wheat under drought is now 31%, up 2%. HRS areas under drought fell 2%. French conditions declined 3% this week and harvest is expected to see delays. Ukraine’s economic ministry lowered their estimate for their wheat crop to 21 mt, compared to 21.7 last season. Exports are still weak, despite the price advantage. Top buyers of US wheat were Mexico, Thailand, and South Korea. Exports are now 48.4% of the forecast for new crop. The 5-year average for new crop wheat exports is 40.3%.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (503) 5-day, (512) 20-day, (535) 50-day, (545) 100-day, (568) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (533) 20-day, (556) 50-day, (567) 100-day, (588) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -89,295 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,526 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,136 contracts to bring their net long position to 22,446 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -90,622 contracts.
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