Soybeans–
Day 2 of the Pro Farmer crop tour through, Indiana and Illinois, found only one field with notable disease. Pro Farmer mentioned that Indiana’s moisture ratings are the lowest since 2014. The USDA is expecting a record yield in Indiana, more rain will be needed for that to materialize. In Nebraska, a number of crop diseases were found, most notably Brown Stem Rot. Pro Farmer found an average of 1,348.31 pods per 3×3 square, which is 15% more than last year and 19% above the 5-year average. Moisture was rated 4.56/6 (1=bone dry, 6=standing water), compared to 4.31 last year and 5.53 in South Dakota.
This morning a 228k mt sale of beans was sold to Mexico. Traders are still awaiting news about possible Chinese demand. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the tariff status quo is “working pretty well” and that the US will likely meet with China again before November. Soybean oil continues to weigh negatively on soybeans, down another -.40 today.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1015 (+2), high of 1019, low of 1011. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1036 (+2), high of 1040, low of 1031. Cash price is at 1006 (-7)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 292 (+4.6) high of 296.4, low of 286.1
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 51.20 (-0.48) high of 51.82, low of 51.15
The September Meal to Oil ratio (53.28% Meal – 46.72% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1015) 5-day, (993) 20-day, (1009) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1036) 5-day, (1013) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (285.5) 5-day, (277) 20-day, (280.3) 50-day, (290.9) 100-day, (301.9) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (52.26) 5-day, (54.09) 20-day, (53.71) 50-day, (51.00) 100-day, (47.51) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 30,660 contracts bringing their bringing their net short to -35,270 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,786 contracts bringing their net short position to -86,016 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -36,686 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,283 contracts, bringing their net short position of -109,309 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -20,576 contracts bringing their net short position to -49,768. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -57,084 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,412 contracts after selling -10,527 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 67,300 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 380 (+0.50), high of 382, low of 378. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 404 (+0.75). Cash price is 391 (-3)
The Pro Farmer crop tour estimated Nebraska’s yield at 179.5 bpa, up from 173.25 bpa previously. The new yield estimate for Nebraska is the highest since 2021. The tour also estimated an increase in Indiana’s corn production, which could be the highest yield since 2003. Some Tipback was noted in the drier areas of Indiana, however. Corn exports for Brazil are now reaching 8.05 mt, up from 7.87 mt last week.
Corn exports for the week ending August 14 were 1,050,715 mt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 64,219,596 mt. Exports are now 89.7% of the USDA forecast for 2024/25 compared to the five-year average of 87.6%.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (380) 5-day, (385) 20-day, (400) 50-day, (418) 100-day, (433) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (403) 5-day, (407) 20-day, (419) 50-day, (433) 100-day, (442) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,364 contracts bringing their net position to -176,114 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -5,345 contracts bringing their net position to -30,872. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -195,710 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 505 (+7), with a high of 508, low of 494. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 528 (+7). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 466 (-4). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 500 (+2).
Wheat could be putting in a bottom, after trading 7 ¼ cents higher to 505 ¾. A higher corn price could also help wheat. Earlier in the week, Russia increased its production forecast. EU and UK wheat areas have favorable harvest conditions, as a result, production is expected to increase in both countries. Germany is included in the EU’s higher wheat forecast, with its winter wheat crop expected to increase 21.9%.
Wheat exports for the week ending August 14 were 395,240 mt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are now 4,811,510 mt. Current exports are at 20.2% of the USDA’s forecast for new crop wheat; the 5-year average is 19.8%.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (503) 5-day, (516) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (546) 100-day, (569) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (525) 5-day, (536) 20-day, (557) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (589) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -89,295 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,526 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,136 contracts to bring their net long position to 22,446 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -90,622 contracts.
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