Soybeans–
Soybeans were 8 cents lower during today’s session after trading unchanged overnight. The Pro Farmer crop tour began today. Today’s tour results took 14 samples with an average of 1421 pods in a 3×3 square, with a high of 2,272 pods and a low of 702 pods. The average of 1421 pods was 190 more pods than 2024. The crop tour took 20 stops in South Dakota and found only 1 field of Sudden Death. The crop tour continues tomorrow in eastern Nebraska. Yesterday’s soybean ratings showed conditions unchanged at 68% good/excellent. The states with the best soybean ratings include Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. The states mentioned previously also have the 3 strongest poor/very poor ratings. Parts of Illinois have battled with dry weather driving ratings lower. Drier weather is expected for Illinois and Indiana over the next 2 weeks. Malaysian ringgit prices declined for the 4th straight session overnight, which has caused a spike in palm oil to the highest price since March. Soybean oil was down -1.48, while soybean meal was up 3.90.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1013 (-7 3/4), high of 1025, low of 1009. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1033 (-7), high of 1046, low of 1030. Cash price is at 1013 (-4)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 287.4(+7.0) high of 288.8, low of 280.5
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 51.68 (-1.59) high of 53.27, low of 51.59
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.66% Meal – 47.34% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1017) 5-day, (992) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1038) 5-day, (1012) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (284.5) 5-day, (276.2) 20-day, (280.5) 50-day, (291.0) 100-day, (302.0) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (52.71) 5-day, (54.32) 20-day, (53.64) 50-day, (50.93) 100-day, (47.48) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 30,660 contracts bringing their bringing their net short to -35,270 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,786 contracts bringing their net short position to -86,016 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -36,686 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,283 contracts, bringing their net short position of -109,309 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -20,576 contracts bringing their net short position to -49,768. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -57,084 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,412 contracts after selling -10,527 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 67,300 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 379 1/4 (-3), high of 383, low of 377. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 403 (-3). Cash price is 394 (-0.75)
Day 1 of the crop tour took place in South Dakota and Nebraska today. From 6 samples, Pro Farmer found an average yield of 172 bpa in South Dakota, with a yield of 199 bpa on the high end and 144 bpa on the low end. In 2024, the average yield came in 16 lower for the same area. In Nebraska, 6 samples produced an average yield of 171 bpa. Nebraska’s highest yield was 232 bpa and the low was 137 bpa. Corn was slightly lower today, after showing strength last week, following the bearish WASDE report. Corn export pace has been strong at 28% above last year but only slightly above the 5-year average.
Corn exports for the week ending August 14 were 1,050,715 mt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 64,219,596 mt. Exports are now 89.7% of the USDA forecast for 2024/25 compared to the five-year average of 87.6%.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (379) 5-day, (386) 20-day, (401) 50-day, (419) 100-day, (433) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (401) 5-day, (407) 20-day, (419) 50-day, (434) 100-day, (442) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,364 contracts bringing their net position to -176,114 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -5,345 contracts bringing their net position to -30,872. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -195,710 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 498 (-4), with a high of 502, low of 497. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 521 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 475 (+3). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 470 (-5).
Wheat closed 4 cents lower, breaking the prior support at 500. As of August 17, winter wheat was 94% harvested, up 4% from last week. Kansas and Oklahoma finished with winter wheat harvesting last week. Attention turns to Washington and Montana for the rest of harvest. The spring wheat harvest is 36% complete, up 20% from last week. Minnesota and North Dakota lead spring wheat harvest progress. Wheat exports continue to lag behind.
Wheat exports for the week ending August 14 were 395,240 mt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are now 4,811,510 mt. Current exports are at 20.2% of the USDA’s forecast for new crop wheat; the 5-year average is 19.8%.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (503) 5-day, (517) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (569) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (525) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (558) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (589) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -89,295 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,526 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,136 contracts to bring their net long position to 22,446 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -90,622 contracts.
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