Soybeans–
Soybeans were down 2 cents during today’s trading session. The Pro Farmer crop tour begins this week. The market will play close attention to see how the fields look compared to the USDA’s estimates. With China and the US pushing trade talks out into the future, any bullish news regarding China purchases will have to wait. Weather forecasts show rain for this week in the north and central parts of the Midwest. Rainfall on the 8-14 day forecast show below-normal precipitation. Friday’s NOPA crush was reported at 195.699 mb, compared to the estimate at 191.6 mb.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1020 (-1), high of 1027, low of 1014. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1041 (-1), high of 1047, low of 1034. Cash price is at 1017 (+14)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 280.4 (-3.0) high of 285.7, low of 279.6
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.27 (+0.09) high of 53.52, low of 52.50
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.68% Meal – 48.32 Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1014) 5-day, (1017) 20-day, (992) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1037) 5-day, (1012) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1025) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (283.3) 5-day, (275.7) 20-day, (280.8) 50-day, (291.2) 100-day, (302.2) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.01) 5-day, (54.51) 20-day, (53.56) 50-day, (50.85) 100-day, (47.44) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 30,660 contracts bringing their bringing their net short to -35,270 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,786 contracts bringing their net short position to -86,016 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -36,686 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,283 contracts, bringing their net short position of -109,309 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -20,576 contracts bringing their net short position to -49,768. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -57,084 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,412 contracts after selling -10,527 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 67,300 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 383 (-0.75), high of 384, low of 379. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 406 (+1). Cash price is 395 (+8)
The grain markets were slow today, with soybeans hardly moving and corn up 1 1/4 cents. Based on the charts and the recent trading pattern, it appears corn may be putting in a bottom. Traders will be watching for the results of the Pro Farmer crop tour which begins this week. Ukraine’s crop was adjusted higher last week. ASAP-AGRI updated their forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop from 27.6 mt to 30.9 mt. Ukraine has higher export prices than the US, as the dollar continues its bearish trend.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (377) 5-day, (387) 20-day, (402) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (400) 5-day, (408) 20-day, (420) 50-day, (434) 100-day, (442) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,364 contracts bringing their net position to -176,114 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -5,345 contracts bringing their net position to -30,872. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -195,710 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 502 (-3), with a high of 508, low of 500. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 525 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 475 (+3). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 506 (-0.75).
Wheat continues to see selling. Friday’s COT showed the funds added 6,500 short contracts to their net short position. President Trump and Zelensky are supposed to meet this afternoon. The scheduled peace talks did not have a huge effect on prices today. China’s wheat imports for July were down nearly 50% y/oy. The US winter wheat harvest is approaching 80% complete, while the French harvest has concluded. Sentiment for wheat remains bearish heading into the overnight and Tuesday’s session.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (505) 5-day, (520) 20-day, (539) 50-day, (547) 100-day, (570) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (540) 20-day, (560) 50-day, (569) 100-day, (590) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -89,295 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,526 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,136 contracts to bring their net long position to 22,446 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -90,622 contracts.
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