Soybeans–
After yesterday’s selloff soybeans rallied hard to end the week. Soybeans were higher due to forecasts for late August calling for drier than normal conditions for late August. Exports for new crop soybeans for the ending August 7, came in at 1,133,006 tons. China is still buying soybeans from South America, which likely gives the US a very short export window in the fall before Brazil’s harvest starts. The drought rating is unchanged at 3%, compared to 6% this time last year.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1022 (+14), high of 1029, low of 1005. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1042 (+14), high of 1049, low of 1026. Cash price is at 1003 (-16)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 283.4 (-0.9) high of 287, low of 282.7
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 51.99 (-1.40) high of 53.50, low of 51.83
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.68% Meal – 48.32% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1011) 5-day, (992) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1031) 5-day, (1011) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1025) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (283.4) 5-day, (275.4) 20-day, (281.3) 50-day, (291.4) 100-day, (302.4) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53) 5-day, (54.64) 20-day, (53.44) 50-day, (50.75) 100-day, (47.39) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -29,619 contracts to their bringing their net short to -65,930 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,529 contracts bringing their net short position to -68,230 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -66,976 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -234 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,592 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,902 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,192. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -82,931 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 54,939 contracts after selling -11,661 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 78,565 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 383 (+8), high of 384, low of 374. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 405 (+8). Cash price is 386 (+1)
Corn showed strength again moving above 405 in the December contract. The drought rating for corn is currently 4%, slightly higher than soybeans. Corn has strong support under 400, with many buyers stepping up. The 6-14 day forecast shows drier weather for the latter half of August. Apart from parts of Minnesota and Michigan, the Midwest is expected to be dry. Corn has support at 386 3/4, $385, and $381 1/2; resistance is at 406, 410, and 412 3/4.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (377) 5-day, (388) 20-day, (403) 50-day, (420) 100-day, (434) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (400) 5-day, (409) 20-day, (421) 50-day, (434) 100-day, (442) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that corn Managed Money bought 7,435 contracts bringing their net position to -173,750 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,417 contracts bringing their net position to -27,359. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -198,038 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 506 (+3), with a high of 508, low of 502. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 527 (+2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 472 (-3). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 507 (+2).
Wheat had a modest gain during today’s session after trading a cent lower overnight. President Trump and Putin met in Alaska today. Optimism surrounds the meeting because put brought Russian business leaders with him. Any progress towards peace would likely push wheat prices down. Winter wheat areas under drought fell 1% to 29% under drought. High ending stocks has led to a bearish sentiment in the wheat market. Large crops are expected around the world, meaning there’s not much of a bullish story for wheat.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (507) 5-day, (522) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (548) 100-day, (570) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (561) 50-day, (50) 100-day, (590) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,769 contracts, having increased their short position by -15,445 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 8,644 contracts to bring their net long position to 16,310 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -84,046 contracts.
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