This morning, wheat futures recovered after failing to extend weakness during the last four trading sessions. Tomorrow’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to show a slight production decrease from last month in all the wheat categories. This could result in a decline of about 25 to 30 million in new crop ending stocks. Shipping risks and costs for Ukraine and Russia are rising due to unrest in the Middle East.
Weekly export sales have been trending higher Today’s number in wheat was 567,823, which is towards the high range expectation of 200,000 to 600,000 tons. In Ukraine, a delayed start in the harvest has caused wheat prices to rise. Wheat prices have experienced less selloff than corn and soybeans during the last five trading sessions. Short covering is expected to continue before and after the USDA report, in my opinion
One trade strategy is to buy September wheat as soon as possible. Today’s settlement is 554 1/2. Risk 10 cents to 544 1/2 stop. The profit objective is 572, which is up into very good resistance.
September 2025 wheat daily chart courtesy of CQG
Below is a chart of corn. Wheat and corn are trading cousins. Four days ago, corn gapped lower. Corn is very good at filling these gaps eventually, in my opinion. Call me at 312-878-2391 if you would like to discuss trading strategies.
September 2025 corn daily chart courtesy of CQG
Stephen Davis
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Walsh Trading
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