RICH MORAN 6/25/2025
SEPT-DEC WHEAT SPREAD (ZWU25-ZWZ25)
The SEP-DEC Wheat Spread (ZWU25-ZWZ25) trended down from its 52-week high of -2-6 on 7/3/24 until it started to level off in January and February. Since the beginning of March until now it has been trading in a fairly tight range between -25 and -20.
As of quite recently it appears to me there may be a possible chain reaction taking place in the market with crude oil leading the way. This week, since Monday’s high or $78.40 in August Crude, it has dropped over $13.00. I think it could be dragging down the grains, starting with soybean oil and then wheat, soybeans & corn possibly following suit. As wheat has been getting hit as of late, the SEPT-DEC Wheat Spread (ZWU25-ZWZ25) has been hanging tough. For example, today as the wheat market fell about 8 cents, December slightly won the race down verses September and the spread settled up ¾ of a cent at -23 (68% of Full Carry).
I am looking for some possible support near -27 in the spread if we can get there. That would be about 80% of full carry and might be a good place to get long the spread. I would risk about 5 cents to -32 (95% of Full Carry). If the wheat market turns around and strengthens, the spread could strengthen as well. If the wheat market stays a little soft, the spread may also continue to hold its own.
If you can get long the spread at -27, then ….
Risk 5 cents (-32) or $250 Per Spread to make 15 cents (-12) or $750 Per Spread – plus fees and commissions
If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions in regard to the commodities futures markets, please feel free to contact me at ;
Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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