For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, June 24, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
August Lean Hogs opened higher and broke down to the session low at 111.75. The early breakdown took price back down to support at 111.675. Price was able hold support and it rallied to the session high at 113.35. The rally took price back to the 112.975 resistance level, stopping just above it but it failed to take out the June 17th high at 113.375. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled near the high at 113.05. The settlement price was above resistance but formed a small bodied candle indicating indecision. The recovery in Hogs took price back to the highs of the trading range it has been in since the August contract took over as the lead contract on June 16th. The range is from the June 17th high at 113.375 to the 105.00 low established when August took over as the lead contact(based on volume) on the 16th. It has now formed a ledge and a breakout above the high or below the low could determine the next directional move. The cash market continued its upward arc as the indices keep moving higher. The one-day cutout however, just may be losing some steam as the cutout was slightly higher but the load count was the smallest in a few weeks, indicating some resistance at these prices. We’ll see!… If Hogs can hold settlement, it could challenge resistance at the June 17th high. A rally past here could lead to a test of resistance at 114.675. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 111.675. Support then comes in at 109.85.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 119.82 as of 06/20/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 108.79 as of 06/19/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 465,000, which is below last week’s 478,000 and above last year’s 464,345.
August Feeder Cattle opened lower and broke down to the low at 300.275. It reversed course and rallied to the high at 303.875. All in the first 15 minutes. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled in the upper end of the range at 302.80. The early breakdown established a new low for the down move, stopping just above support at 299.90 and staying above the psychological 300.00 price level with the recovery rally taking price back to the lower end of last week’s trading range. The rally stalled just below resistance at 304.35 and the rising 21-DMA now at 304.575. The Feeder Cattle Index continues to be under some pressure, making a new low for the down move after making an all-time high for the index up at 317.10 on June 12th. Futures are trading at a discount to the index as traders are becoming uncertain that the cash market can maintain these high prices in the near term. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at301.90. A failure could take price back down to support at 299.90. Support then comes in at the rising 50-DMA now at 298.325 and then 297.80. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at 304.325 and the rising 21-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 306.90.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 310.85 as of 06/20/2025.
August Live Cattle gap opened lower and traded to an early low before racing higher to the session high at 211.25. The rally stalled just above resistance at 210.975, turning south and falling to the session low at 208.10. The breakdown to the low was a new low for the down move and the selling stopped just above support at 207.725. Price couldn’t do much however, consolidating in the lower end of the trading range and settling at 209.375. Settlement was below the rising 50-DMA now at 210.125 but the price action formed a small bodied candle indicating indecision. The packer was able to take cash prices lower last week, chopping $4.00 off the previous week’s all-time high average price at 238.91. The reduction in slaughter and the futures breakdown last week finally weighed down the cash price action. The cutout weakness at the end of the week and the start of this week is also playing a large factor in the weakening sentiment. There is fear that after the July 4th holiday, cutouts will tank leading to more depreciation in cash prices. We’ll see!… If price can’t hold support, it could re-test support at 207.725. A failure from here could see price approach support at 205.55. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at the rising 50-DMA and then resistance at 210.975. Resistance then comes in at the flattening 21-DMA now at 212.775.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.28 to 390.22 and select surged 6.15 to 383.10. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 7.12 and the load count was 88.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 111,000, which is above last week’s 103,000 and below last year’s 113,292.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been inactive in all feeding regions. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 228.00. The last established market test in Kansas was last week at 228.00. The last established market test in Nebraska was last week with live purchases ranging from 235.00-237.00 and dressed purchases at 376.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 235.00- 238.00 and dressed purchases at 376.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
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