Rich Moran 6/20/2025
SEP-DEC CORN SPREAD (ZCU25-ZCZ25)
The short-term forecast has us expecting some hot temperatures through-out the Midwest this weekend and up into the middle of next week. With this, the over-all mindset remains very optimistic for a good corn harvest this summer. Even with the strong expected demand, the corn market has obviously been trending down. Today, September corn (ZCU25) settled 425-4, only 7-2 cents off its 52-week low of 418-2, from this past Monday (6/16).
September corn has clearly been winning the race down verses December corn. This spread of SEPT-CORN minus DEC-CORN (ZCU25-ZCZ25) has gone from its 52-week high of +3-2 on 1/24/25 and on 1/29/25 to its 52-week low of -17.2 this past Monday (6/16/25). Since then, the spread has been trading in a pretty tight range between -17 and -14-2.
Today, the spread is at a place where it can’t seem to make up its mind. It is trading at or near the 14-day and 21-day moving averages and settled just below them at 15-6. My thought is to wait and see. If we can remain below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages while making a new 52-week low below -17-2 (which would also be a new 14-day low), it might be a good time to short the spread. We are only about half-way to “Full-Carry”. Last year, the 2024 SEPT-DEC CORN SPREAD exceeded 80% of “Fully-Carry”.
If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions in regard to the commodities futures markets, please feel free to contact me at ;
Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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