Rich Moran 6/18/2025
AUG-NOV SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSQ25-ZSX25)
| AUG-NOV ’25 SOYBEAN SPREAD ZSQ25 – ZSX25 | ||
| Daily Settlement | +8-4 | |
| 14 Day M/A | Below↓ | |
| 21 Day M/A | Below↓ | |
| 14 Day High/Low | New ↓ | |
| YTD High/Low | Approaching ↓ | |
As the soybeans market has been rising over the past week, November has been outpacing August on the way up. This trend has the spread (ZSQ25-ZSX25) possibly heading towards “carrying cost” pricing where August beans would be priced below November beans, making that spread negative. I feel that this downward trend of the spread can possibly continue even if the soybean market itself pauses or dips.
This strong downward trend of the spread has been taking place since June 10th’s high of 19-6. The spread has also stayed well below the 14-day (12-1) and 21-day (12-2) moving averages since falling below there on Monday (6/16). Today we made a new-14 day low of 6 after yesterday’s new 14-day low of 7.
We are also flirting with a new 52-week low below 2-6. If that happens, I think the spread may continue to go down and that’s when I would suggest getting short the spread. You could stick your toe in the water by trying to get short here at 8-6 or 9 using a quick stop just above, but I would suggest waiting for a new 52-week low. If and when we make a new 52-week low in the spread, I think it may be a good time to get short the spread.
Risk 4 cents or $200 Per Spread to make 12 cents or $600 Per Spread.
If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions in regard to the commodities futures markets, please feel free to contact me at ;
Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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