Soybeans–
Soybeans closed higher today, while soybean oil moved slightly lower following two limit up moves in a row. Soybean conditions fell to 66% good/excellent, down 2% over last week. Last year at this time, the good/excellent rating for soybeans was 70%. Planting is at 93% complete, ahead of the five-year average at 84%. The 8–14-day forecast shows above normal rains for the upper portion of the Midwest.
Open interest is rising in both soybean meal and soybean oil. Soybean oil OI has risen 50k contracts in the last 2 days, with volume reaching all-time highs. OI interest rose 24k contracts in soybean meal yesterday, with prices testing the 3-month low. The rising OI on lower prices suggests the opening of new short positions. If soybean oil can continue to rally it would limit exports allowing sufficient domestic feedstock availability for the expected ramp in crush rates. If soybean meal continues to fall it will help make it more attractive for countries looking to make imports of the additional expected meal supplies.
NOPA crush came out yesterday morning at 192.829 mb, the trade estimate was 193.52. Despite the report number being lower than the estimate, it was the highest-ever total for May on record.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 215k mt at 90.2% of the USDA’s estimate. The 5-year average is 87.2%. Exports for this week are below the 558k mt figure from last week. Top destinations for soybeans this week were Germany, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1074 (+4), high of 1075, low of 1063. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1067 (+7). Cash price is at 1046 (unchanged)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 285.1 (+1.4) high of 285.7, low of 283.1
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.79 (+4.50) high of 55.51, low of 54.02
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.74% Meal – 49.26% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1061) 5-day, (1054) 20-day, (1050) 50-day, (1049) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1070) 5-day, (1039) 20-day, (1031) 50-day, (1033) 100-day, (1034) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (289.9) 5-day, (294.2) 20-day, (296.2) 50-day, (303) 100-day, (310.7) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (51.23) 5-day, (48.85) 20-day, (48.71) 50-day, (46.95) 100-day, (45.16) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 17,038 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 25,639 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 9,909 contracts, moving to a net short position of -86,808 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -9,212 contracts bringing their net short position to -62,105. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -50,495 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed Managed Money traders were net long 24,768 contracts after selling -7,222 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 40,033 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 434 (-3), high of 437, low of 429. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 438 (+3). Cash price is 456 (-9)
Corn conditions rose 1% this week to 72% good/excellent. The 6–10-day forecast shows above-normal temperatures in the eastern corn belt, with rains expected in the upper Midwest, especially in Wisconsin and Iowa. During the critical growing period in the middle part of July, we could see a weather market rally if crop conditions start to weaken.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 1.67 mmt at 78.8% of the USDA’s estimate. The 5-year average is 72.0%. Exports are down from last week’s exports at 1.72 mmt. Top destinations for corn this week were Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (459) 50-day, (472) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (447) 50-day, (453) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that corn Managed Money sold -9,977 contracts bringing their net position to -164,020 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 24,108 contracts bringing their net position to -78,344. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -171,062 contracts.
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WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 549 (+12), with a high of 552, low of 536. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 565 (+13). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 540 (-9). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 547 (+11). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 630 (+8)
On Monday’s Crop Conditions report, winter wheat dropped 2% to 52% good/excellent. Last year at this time winter wheat conditions were 49% good/excellent. 93% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday. 89% of spring wheat has emerged, 5 points behind last year at this time. Crop conditions were estimated at 57% good/excellent, up 4 points over last week. Kansas is expected to see unwanted rains this week as harvest takes off but temperatures will be hot. The U.S. dollar has provided some support to the wheat market along with crude oil.
Exports for the week ending June 12 were 388k. The current marketing year is at 2.6% of the USDA estimate right inline with the 5-year average at 2.6%. Exports are up from last weeks total 324k mt. Top wheat destinations for this week were Nigeria, the Philippines, Thailand, and Mexico.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (553) 5-day, (554) 20-day, (554) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (589) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (534) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (581) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (625) 5-day, (617) 20-day, (608) 50-day, (616) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -94,011 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,561 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,184 contracts to bring their net position to 34,095 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -95,234 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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