For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, June 10, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
August Feeder Cattle gap opened higher made an early high, which was a new all-time high for the lead contract and then crashed. The breakdown took price to the low of the day at 308.275. Price then consolidated for most of the session, taking off at the end of the day to a new all-time high and session high at 311.90. It settled at another new all-time high settlement at 311.65. The early breakdown approached support at 307.675 and the new high stalled below the daily R2 at 312.40. The feeder market continues to soar across all weight classes and the feeder weight cattle surge took the index to a new all-time high at 310.46. This is a 4-handle leap over the previous high set just on Friday. With the stoppage of Mexican cattle coming in to the US and the limited supply of cattle we have in the states, feedlots have been aggressive pursuers of cattle. We are down a little over 287,000 head from Mexico year over year. We have completely stopped cattle coming in from Mexico for the foreseeable future. This could see cattle down 100% percent going forward if the USDA doesn’t allow cattle to come in from Mexico. This is all because of the New World Screwworm making its way north from Central America. This will continue to be an issue and the experts are saying it will eventually reach the Unted States. What happens then? We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at the 310.55. Support then comes in at 309.475and then 307.675. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at R1 at 313.00, R2 at 314.25, R3 at 316.65.
The Feeder Cattle Index surged and is at 310.46 as of 06/06/2025.
August Live Cattle gap opened higher and then broke down, closing the gap while trading down to the low at 217.625. The market reversed and rallied to the high and a new all-time high for the lead contract at 220.05. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled at a new all-time high settlement at 219.25. The early breakdown tested support at 217.75 and the new high tested resistance at R1 at 220.00. Friday’s cash market was on fire as cash traded as high as 244.00 and the 5-area Steer average was a new record at 236.62 for the week. Texas and Kansas took off and traded above 230.00, setting records for their respective regions. Cutouts made a new high on Monday for the year but the load count was small, indicating some resistance at the new yearly high. Packers have been aggressive in paying up for cattle and now some producers think we may see 250.00 up north sooner rather than later. Packers continue to buy cattle with time which has producers thinking the packer doesn’t believe prices will come down anytime soon. Others say they are loading up and when they are in a situation where they have enough cattle to ignore the producer, they will ratchet prices down to get the average they paid lower. The summer doldrums are nearing and the holiday buying will slow soon. We’ll see!… If price trades below settlement, it could test support at 218.625. Support then comes in at 217.75.A failure from here could see a test of support at 215.60. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at R1 – 220.15. Resistance then comes in at R2 – 221.30. R3 is art 222.60.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 2.17 to 367.25 and select increased 2.20 to 358.93. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 8.32 and the load count was 90.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 115,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 122,172.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been inactive in all regions on moderate demand. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at 232.00. The latest established market in Kansas was last week at 235.00. The latest established market in Nebraska was last week with live purchases from 242.00-244.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00. The latest established market in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 240.00-242.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
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