Please join me every Thursday at 3pm Central for a free grain and livestock webinar. We discuss supply, demand, weather and the charts. Sign Up Now
Commentary
The soybean complex in my opinion had the China-US trade negotiations provide a headline to keep the bears at bay today. There were a few whispers of potential progress that President Trump echoed as the trade talks with China continue. There was also handshake agreements regarding rare-earth metals gave the market something to be hopeful about. Bean imports into China were announced and they were massive. China imported a record 13.92 million metric tons (511 million bushels) of soybeans in May, up from the previous high of 12.02 million metric tons in May 2023. April to May imports total 20 million metric tons, up 6.4% from the previous year’s pace. The bulk of those soybeans came from Brazil. Chinese soybean imports from January to May total 37.11 million metric tons (1.364 billion bushels), down 0.7% from the previous year’s pace due to low imports from the United States over the winter that it is now making up for with massive shipments from Brazil. It goes to show in my view that no matter how many bushels Brazil grows, China will take them all. That could set the stage for a rally this Summer if it turns hot and dry Mid-July through August. Last week’s US inspections came in as follows. U.S. exporters shipped 20.1 million bushels to other countries during the week ending June 5th bringing the cumulative marketing year-to-date total to 1660.4 million bushels. The USDA estimates the U.S. will export 1850 million bushels during the 2024/25 marketing year. Currently, we’ve inspected 90% of that total. Typically, at this point in the year, we’ve exported 87%, so we are 3% above pace. Mexico, Japan, Egypt, and Indonesia each took over 3 million bushels of soybeans during the week ending June 4. The average trade guess for ending stocks in soybeans for this Thursday’s crop report is 351 million bushels for old crop. The range of guesses is tight at 340 on the low to 375 million on the high. For new crop, the average trade guess is 298 million bushels. That is up 3 million from last month with a range of 285 million to 335 million. With less bean acres planted that could end up over three million less acres harvested versus last year, it won’t take much in my view for a fund inspired weather premium rally in soybeans.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now
Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
312 957 8103
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
Walsh Trading
311 S Wacker Drive Suite 540
Chicago, Il 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.