The focus for the soybean market is on trade talks. The U.S. and China will meet this week in London to continue negotiating. Last week, President Trump and Xi had a productive discussion, setting up this meeting. Above-normal rains are expected in the southeast and northern Plains, but overall, the forecast has been solid for early crop development. The USDA’s June WASDE report is scheduled for Thursday. Predicting USDA, the average estimate for old crop is 351 million bushels (mb) and 298 million bushels for new crop. The low end of the range for new crop is 285 mb and the high end is 298 mb. On the May report, the USDA came in at 350 mb for old crop and 295 mb for new crop.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1056 (-1), high of 1061, low of 1053. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1030 (-6). Cash price is at 1043 (+6)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 295.5 (-0.2) high of 297.4, low of 294.2
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 47.38 (-0.17) high of 47.91, low of 47.08
The July Meal to Oil ratio (55.50% Meal – 44.50% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1050) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1046) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1029) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1028) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (299.6) 5-day, (298.7) 20-day, (299.6) 50-day, (307) 100-day, (313) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (47.23) 5-day, (48.90) 20-day, (48.31) 50-day, (46.64) 100-day, (44.80) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 6th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -28,096 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 8,601 contracts. Producer/Merchant traders bought 32,487 contracts bringing their net short position to -143,487 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 20,330 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 6th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -2,932 contracts, moving to a net short position of -96,717 contracts. Producer/Merchants added 2,967 contracts bringing their net long position to 111,232. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -58,340 contracts. For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 6th showed Managed Money traders were net long 31,990 contracts after selling -21,998 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 41,253 contract
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 433 (-9), high of 445, low of 432. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 438 (-11). Cash price is 457 (+3)
The COT for the week ending June 6, showed managed money had a 9-month high in their net short position. It will be interesting to see how the funds position after this week’s WASDE report and ahead of the June Grain Stocks report on the 28th. The UN-FAO has global corn production at a record, up 3.8% over last year. Global supply is huge despite production issues in Eastern Europe and in Asia. The June WASDE report comes out on Thursday. The average guess for USDA’s old crop figure is 1.392 billion bushels (bb) and 1.792 for new crop. The low guess for new crop is 1.713 bb and the highest is 1.792 bb. On the May report, old crop came in at 1.415 bb and new crop was 1.8 bb.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (438) 5-day, (447) 20-day, (463) 50-day, (476) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 6thh showed that corn Managed Money sold -4,913 contracts bringing their net position to -154,043 contracts. Producer/Merchant traders bought 47,609 contracts bringing their net position to -102,452. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -170,495 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 542 (-12), with a high of 557, low of 540. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 572 (-11). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 560 (+13). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 537 (-11). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 622 (-12)
The wheat market had a solid move lower today, in all three markets, due to rain in the Plains. The southern Plains are already struggling with heavy moisture levels. UN-FAO lowered global stocks to 310 million tons, the lowest in 4 years. There was little short covering by the funds in latest COT report. The June WASDE report comes out on Thursday. The estimate for the USDA’s old crop figure is 842 mb and 924 for new crop. On the May WASDE report, the USDA came in at 841 mb for old crop and 923 mb for new crop.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (562) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (558) 5-day, (550) 20-day, (556) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (590) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (541) 5-day, (530) 20-day, (546) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (582) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (624) 5-day, (604) 20-day, (606) 50-day, (616) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 6th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -100,572 contracts, having decreased their short position by 654 contracts. Producer/Merchant traders added 2,550 contracts to bring their net position to 36,279 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -99,069 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com