Soybeans–
According to the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean harvest is 88% complete, up from 80% last week. Despite slow harvest pace due to flooding, yields have been surprisingly strong. Brazil continues to export soybeans at a solid pace, with May soybean exports at 14.1 mt, from 15.3 mt in April, but above 13.47 from a year ago. Temperatures are expected to rise next week in the Midwest and the Plains.
April exports for soybeans were 2.18 mt, compared to 3.498 in March. Yesterday’s call between Trump and China added some optimism to future
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1057 (+5), high of 1060, low of 1047. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1037 (+3). Cash price is at 1037 (+7)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 295.7 (-1.4) high of 297.8, low of 294.3
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 47.50 (+0.85) high of 47.72, low of 46.91
The July Meal to Oil ratio (56.02% Meal – 43.98% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1045) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1046) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1026) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1028) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (299.3) 5-day, (298.6) 20-day, (299.7) 50-day, (307.2) 100-day, (313.1) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (46.81) 5-day, (48.78) 20-day, (48.21) 50-day, (46.66) 100-day, (44.83) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 24,043 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 36,697 contracts. CIT traders were net long 160,842 contracts after increasing their already long position by 2,973 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -2,309 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,564 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 55,242.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 13,681 contracts, moving to a net short position of -93,785 contracts. CIT traders were net long 74,519 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,671 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -83,092 contracts after increasing their long position by 14,444 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 53,104 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 53,988 contracts after selling -3,321 contracts. CIT traders were net long 130,813 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders bought 1,144 contracts, to a net with a total of 2,077 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 67,989 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 424 (+3), high of 445, low of 435. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 449 (+1). Cash price is 454 (+5)
Corn areas under drought decreased with recent rains to 21%, down 2%. Last year at this time, drought was only 3%. Drought areas should continue to fall going forward. Argentina’s harvest is 43.8% complete, up 3.3% compared to last week. Brazil’s export pace will increase over the next several weeks as they finish up harvest. Corn export pace is at 99% of the USDA projections with 3 months left in the marketing year.
Ethanol production for the week ending May 30 averaged 1.105 mb, which is a record for this point in the year. Ethanol production is up 4.6% over last week and up 3.1% over last year. Ethanol stocks also made a high for this point in the year at 23.636 mb compared to the 5-year average at 22.340 mb. Corn use will need to average 98.77 mb to meet the USDA forecast of 5.5 bb.
Exports for the week ending May 29 were 1.1 mmt. Cumulative sales are at 98.6% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, compared to the 5-year average at 92.3%.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (448) 20-day, (463) 50-day, (476) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,450, bringing their net position to -100,760 contracts. CIT traders increased their net long position by 13,396 contracts to a long position of 326,490 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -26,359 contracts, to a net short position of -216,158 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -115,683.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 424 (+3), high of 445, low of 435. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 449 (+1). Cash price is 454 (+5)
Corn areas under drought decreased with recent rains to 21%, down 2%. Last year at this time, drought was only 3%. Drought areas should continue to fall going forward. Argentina’s harvest is 43.8% complete, up 3.3% compared to last week. Brazil’s export pace will increase over the next several weeks as they finish up harvest. Corn export pace is at 99% of the USDA projections with 3 months left in the marketing year.
Ethanol production for the week ending May 30 averaged 1.105 mb, which is a record for this point in the year. Ethanol production is up 4.6% over last week and up 3.1% over last year. Ethanol stocks also made a high for this point in the year at 23.636 mb compared to the 5-year average at 22.340 mb. Corn use will need to average 98.77 mb to meet the USDA forecast of 5.5 bb.
Exports for the week ending May 29 were 1.1 mmt. Cumulative sales are at 98.6% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, compared to the 5-year average at 92.3%.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (448) 20-day, (463) 50-day, (476) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (443) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,450, bringing their net position to -100,760 contracts. CIT traders increased their net long position by 13,396 contracts to a long position of 326,490 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -26,359 contracts, to a net short position of -216,158 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -115,683.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 554 (+9), with a high of 555, low of 540. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 568(+9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 547 (+2). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 549 (+6). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 635 (+10)
The U.S. winter wheat drought area fell 4% to 12%, compared to 21% last year at this time. HRS under drought decline by 10% to 19%, compared to 3% last year. A new crop conditions report will come out Monday afternoon. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization increased global wheat stocks to 800 mt, up from 795 mt on their last report.
A heat wave is affecting the Chinese wheat crop. A Bloomberg survey estimates a -5% y/oy decline in production to a range of 133-135 mmt. The current forecast is 142 mmt from the USDA, but this number could be lowered on the upcoming June WASDE report on the 12th.
Managed money still holds a large short position, so short covering is still possible with a move higher in the wheat market.
Cumulative wheat export sales have reached 24.5% of the USDA forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year, compared to the 5-year average of 16.1%.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (543) 5-day, (534) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (562) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (557) 5-day, (549) 20-day, (556) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (590) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (541) 5-day, (530) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (573) 100-day, (582) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (625) 5-day, (602) 20-day, (606) 50-day, (616) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -101,226 contracts, having decreased their short position by 7,667 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,117 contracts, decreasing their long position by -1,954 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -94,165 contracts after net buying 5,124 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -99,257.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com