SOYBEANS –
Soybeans made another big swing lower today due to weather, after closing lower on Friday. Weather lately has been good for early development. Rains continue to show up in the 10-day forecast across the Plains and Midwest. Trade talks between the U.S. and China broke down.
For the week ending May 22, soybean sales were 178k. Cumulative soybean sales have reached 85% of the USDA forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year. Sales need to average 121k from here to reach the USDA forecast.
Looking at technicals, support is at 1026, resistance is 1044.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1033 (-8), high of 1042, low of 1032. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1017 (-9). Cash price is at 1027 (-10)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 293.9 (-2.4) high of 296.3, low of 293.2
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 46.28 (-0.61) high of 47.17, low of 46.23
The July Meal to Oil ratio (55.95% Meal – 44.05% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1047) 5-day, (1053) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1046) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1033) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (295.3) 5-day, (294.6) 20-day, (297.7) 50-day, (305.7) 100-day, (312.1) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (48.01) 5-day, (49.03) 20-day, (47.88) 50-day, (46.57) 100-day, (44.68) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 24,043 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 36,697 contracts. CIT traders were net long 160,842 contracts after increasing their already long position by 2,973 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -2,309 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,564 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 55,242.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 13,681 contracts, moving to a net short position of -93,785 contracts. CIT traders were net long 74,519 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,671 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -83,092 contracts after increasing their long position by 14,444 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 53,104 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 53,988 contracts after selling -3,321 contracts. CIT traders were net long 130,813 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders bought 1,144 contracts, to a net with a total of 2,077 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 67,989 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 438 (-5), high of 451, low of 437. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 435 (-2). Cash price is 450 (-3)
The corn market traded lower again today. Solid rains have been beneficial for early development in corn. Wheat was higher today, along with a lower dollar but it didn’t do much for the corn market. Argentina saw some light frost in corn areas over the weekend but crop damage is expected to be unlikely. At this time, there is no weather story to drive the market higher. We’re watching for possible drier weather coming to the Plains and Midwest by June 16th.
Exports for the week ending May 22 were 947k. Cumulative sales are at 97% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year. Sales from here need to average 128k mt per week to reach the USDA forecast.
Ethanol average daily production for the week ending May 23rd averaged 1.056 mb, up 1.9% over last week. Ethanol production is still down 1.1% from last year. Ethanol’s five-year average is 0.976 mb per day. Corn use for the week was estimated at 106.54 mb. The average daily production needs to be 99.66 mb per week to reach the USDA’s marketing year forecast at 5.500 bb.
Support 436, Resistance 444, 457, 468 in July corn.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (452) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (466) 50-day, (478) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (444) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,450, bringing their net position to -100,760 contracts. CIT traders increased their net long position by 13,396 contracts to a long position of 326,490 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -26,359 contracts, to a net short position of -216,158 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -115,683.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 539 (+5), with a high of 549, low of 533. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 553 (+5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 534 (unchanged). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 539 (+6). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 626 (+0.5)
The wheat market traded higher today across the board. The southern Plains are expecting significant rain this week to add to already wet conditions. Early harvest has been affected in the far southern plains and crop disease fears have increased. Managed money decreased their short position in Chicago wheat, but there is still a large long position open, meaning short covering can continue.
HRS conditions are at 45% good/excellent, well below expectations. HRS wheat ratings are tied with 2021 as the second lowest of the last 40 years, with 1988 being the worst year. In 1988 and 2021 yields were cut heavily due to drought. At current pace, HRS wheat plantings are set for a 55-year low.
Exports for the week ending May 33 were 582k. Cumulative sales are 22.5% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. The 5-year average is 14.2%. Sales need to average 254k mt per week to reach the USDA forecast.
July Chicago wheat support is at 525, resistance is at 541.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (543) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (547) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (558) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (591) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (530) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (574) 100-day, (583) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (613) 5-day, (598) 20-day, (604) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -101,226 contracts, having decreased their short position by 7,667 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,117 contracts, decreasing their long position by -1,954 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -94,165 contracts after net buying 5,124 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -99,257.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com