5/20/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed again, with the Fats closing a little lower on the day. The Fats did not close well today. August’25 Live Cattle were 7 ½ cents lower today and settled at 207.85. Today’s high was 208.55 and the 1-month and contract his is 214.50. Today’s low was 207.05 and the 1-month low is 199.35. Since 4/17 August’25 Live Cattle are 7.72 ½ higher or almost 4%. The August’25 Feeders barely stayed positive today. August’25 Feeder Cattle were 2 ½ cents higher today and settled at 297.50. Today’s high was 298.55 and the 1-month and contract high is 307.67 ½. Today’s low was 296.20 and the 1-month low is 288.05. Since 4/17 August’25 Feeder Cattle are 6.62 ½ higher or more than 2%. The Hogs looked good again today. June’25 Hogs were 77 ½ cents higher today and settled at 100.02 ½. Today’s high was 100.10 and the 1-month high is 101.97 ½. Today’s low was 98.52 ½ and the 1-month low is 96.67 ½. Since 4/17 June’25 Lean Hogs are 2.00 higher or more than 2%. It looks like the Cattle Markets could be running out of steam. The August’25 Fats settled $6.75 below the contract high and negative on the day. The August’25 Feeders settled $10.17 ½ below the contract high and fractionally higher on the day. I feel both markets can now trade lower from here. If the August’25 Fats pulled back 10% off the contract highs, it would be a move of $21.45 and put the price at 193.05. Today the August’25 Fats closed just $14.80 above the 10% pullback level of 193.05. I still like the 190 level and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.63. If the August’25 Feeders complete their 10% pullback from the contract high, it would be a move of $30.76 and put the price at 276.90. Today the August’25 Feeders closed $20.60 above the 10% pullback level of 276.90. I still like the 260-265 level, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low at 271.90. I would keep track of the monthly gains in both the Fats and Feeders. If the monthly gains are erased, it could send both markets straight down. Currently the August’25 Fats 7.72 ½ higher for the month and the August’25 Feeders are just 6.62 ½ higher on the month. Two of the Option Strikes I like in the Fats and Feeders are the August’25 190 Puts for the Fats and they settled at 1.07 ½ and for the August’25 Feeders I like the 265 Puts, and they settled at 1.55 today. The Hogs had a good gain and settle above the 100.00 level again today. The June’25 Hogs settled just 7 ½ cents below today’s high and have been stuck in a range for a while. Unless something new develops I would expect it to trade between the 1-month high of 101.97 ½ and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 96.05. Be careful trying to hold out for the 300.00 level in the Feeders again.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. Take advantage of any pullbacks in these markets. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were all higher today, with the Wheat leading the way. The Beans took all day to end positive. July’25 Soybeans were 2 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1053. Today’s high was 1056 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1082. Today’s low was 1046 ¼ and the 1-month low is 1036 ½. Since 4/17 July’25 Soybeans are 5 ¼ cents higher or about ½%. The Corn Market had a strong day as well today. July’25 Corn was 7 cents higher today and settled at 454 ½. Today’s high was 455 ½ and the 1-month high is 495. Today’s low was 444 ¾ and the 1-month low is 436 ½. Since 4/17 July’25 Corn is 35 ¾ cents lower or more than 7%. The Wheat Market looked great today. July’25 Wheat was 17 cents higher today and settled at 546. Today’s high was 547 ½ and the 1-month high is 581. Today’s low was 528 ¾ and the 1-month and contract low is 506 ¼. Since 4/17 July’25 Wheat is 16 ¼ cents lower or almost 3%. The Grain Markets are awake with the first weather scares of the season, and we still have not seen any trades deal rallies yet. It could be an interesting year with the Corn and Wheat just off their recent contract lows and thrown into a weather market while the world waits to finalize trades deals with the US. I feel there is a great deal of upside in the Grain Markets. The July’25 Soybeans settled above 1050 again and look ready to move higher. I still like the 1080 level with the 1-month high sitting just above at 1082 and is just 29 cents above todays close. I still feel we can see the July’25 Soybeans trade up to the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 1102 ¼. I like the July’25 Soybean 1100 Calls and today they settled at 4 ¾. The July’25 Corn was strong today and settled above the 450 level. I feel the July’25 Corn needs to close above the 200-Day moving average of 461 ½ before a sustained rally can occur. If it does head higher, I like the 480 level, with the 100-Day moving average sitting at 479 ¼. The July’25 Corn 480 Calls settled at 4 1/8 today. The Wheat Market was not messing around today and had a nice 17 cent gain for the day and settled just 1 ½ cents off the high. I like the Wheat Market, and I said that if there was the slightest weather problem that it could shoot straight up. It is the second smallest Wheat planting since 1919 and if it stays cold and dry, we could see huge gains in the Wheat, just as trade deals could be getting finalized. The Funds are short the Wheat Market as well, and if we see a close above the 550 level in July’25 it could trigger some short covering. It could be the perfect upside storm. I said I liked the 580 level, and I still do. The 100-Day moving average is 579 ½ and the 1-month high is 581. If the July’25 Wheat trades up to 580, it would complete the 50-cent rally I spoke of earlier and is just 34 cents away from today’s settlement. I still think we can see the July’25 Wheat trade up to the 640 level, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high low sitting at 638 ½. The July’25 Wheat 600 Calls settled at 3 ¼ today. There is great opportunity in the Option Markets, and I would like a chance to show you. Give me a call and I will explain it to you and then send you a detailed trading or hedging plan as well. Have a great night, and I look forward to speaking with you.
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Keep an eye on the Soybean Oil and Natural Gas, both look ready to take off again.
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If you don’t like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving at your new and very large brokerage house, you have options, and you don’t have to stay there.
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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