For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 21, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs opened higher and rallied to the high at 101.60. The rally took price near resistance at 101.975 where it fell short and turned lower. It broke down to the low of the day at 100.10, which is just above support at 100.075. It drifted into the close and settled near the low at 100.325. June Hogs remain in a trading range with the high at 101.975 and the low at 96.675. The rally took price back into the upper end of the range as traders hope the cash market has reversed once again and is starting its seasonal rally. The cash index and the cutout are moving higher once again and the cutout on Friday topped 100.00 which could be the start of higher prices into the grilling buying season. This could send cash prices in an upward trajectory if this is an actual breakout in the cutout. Trade tensions are calming down, and the potential is for the Chinese and other nations to come back into the fold and buy pork from the US as part of the trade agreements. This could get our exports back on track, creating more pork demand and help push the cash markets higher. Hogs seem to be in a good place and futures could continue to see improvements in price. We’ll see!… If Hogs can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 101.975. Resistance then comes in at 104.35. A failure from support (100.075) could see price revisit support at 98.475. Support then comes in at 97.10.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 97.58 as of 05/15/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 91.02 as of 05/14/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 475,000, which is below last week’s 477,000 and above last year’s 465,953. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 20,000, which is below last week’s 38,000 and last year’s 37,686. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 2,409,000, which is below last week’s 2,437,000 and last year’s 2,412,357.
August Feeder Cattle opened unchanged and made the low at 295.50. Feeders grinded higher for the rest of the session to the high at 298.625. Price dipped into the close and settled at 297.60. It formed an inside candlestick as the Friday price range stayed in the lower part of Thursday’s range. The Friday price action saw the open test support at the rising 21-DMA now at 296.525 and the rally take price past resistance at 297.80 and settle just below it. The recovery was a short-covering event as we head into the weekend, in my opinion. The market had taken a nose-dive in the past two sessions and Friday was a day of rest and recovery as traders look to the weekend to digest what happened this week. Futures and cash price have been on a tear, setting all-time highs for each and the market pulled back as profit taking finally took place in the futures. This has led to a dip in the index on Friday. The futures market put in an all-time high price on May 14th at 307.675 for the lead contract and the index made its high at 302.41 on the same day with a May 13th settlement. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 21-DMA. Support then comes in at 293.80. A rally past the high could see price test resistance at 299.90 and then the gap created from the May 15th high at 300.80 to the May 14th low at 301.325.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 300.79 as of 05/15/2025.
August Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the June contract. The August contract opened higher and traded down to the low at 205.40. The low tested support at 205.55 and it held as price consolidated for a bit and then grinded higher to the high at 207.35. It dipped into the close to settle at 206.75. The rally stalled just below resistance at 207.725. Friday was also a day of rest and recovery for the Live Cattle market as some short-covering kept price within the previous day’s trading range forming an inside candlestick. Futures have broken down since peaking at 218.625 for the lead contract on May 14th. This is the all-time high price for the lead contract and now that August has taken the ball and is the lead contract, it seems a long ways away. The August contract peaked on the same day at 214.50. The breakdown in futures was profit taking in my opinion as longs looked like they felt it was time to book profits as futures have surged with no real pullback since making a low on April 9th. Why the selloff? Who knows… but once the longs realized they missed selling the high, panic took over and get me out orders came in droves. This hasn’t affected the cash prices as cash remained strong all week and may have topped last week’s all-time average high for the 5-area cattle price. In fact the Live Cattle price made a new all-time high this week at 231.00 and so far, the dressed high is just a buck below last week’s all-time high price(362.00 vs 363.00). This shows that futures can diverge from cash in the short-run as traders get in and out of positions. Cash fundamentals are strong as the packer is finally seeing improvements in the cutout and cattle supply is still limited, in my opinion. Consumer demand remains healthy, and we are into the summer grilling season as the retail industry prepares for the major upcoming holidays that usually leads to strong beef consumption. We’ll see!… If price trades below settlement, it could re-test support at 205.55. A failure from here could see a test of support at 203.50. If price can overcome resistance at 207.725, it could test resistance at 208.80. Resistance then comes in at 210.975.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.59 to 352.49 and select surged 3.21 to 342.39. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 10.10 and the load count was 101.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 105,000, which is above last week’s 88,000 and last year’s 101,561. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 2,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 9,908. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 566,000, which is above last week’s 559,000 and below last year’s 596,918.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, in the Southern Plains trade has been limited on good demand. In Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, trade has been light on good demand with a few live sales at 229.00. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas was Thursday at 220.00. The latest established market in Nebraska was on Thursday with live purchases mostly from 228.00-229.00 with dressed purchases at 358.00. The latest established market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday with live purchases mostly from 228.00-229.00 and a few dressed purchases at 358.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 218.00 – 231.00 and from 350.00 – 362.00 on a dressed basis (so far)
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