5/15/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed, with the Fats and Feeders continuing to get pounded today. The Fats were down more than 3 ½ bucks today. August’25 Live Cattle were 3.52 ½ lower today and settled at 205.85. Today’s high was 208.50 and the 1-month and contract high is 214.50. Today’s low was 205.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 196.62 ½. Since 4/15 August’25 Live Cattle are 9.00 higher or more than 4 ½ %. The August’25 Feeders were smacked down again, losing more than 6-dollars today. August’25 Feeder Cattle were 6.15 lower today and settled at 295.82 ½. Today’s high was 300.80 and the 1-month and contract high is 307.67 ½. Today’s low was 295.10 and the 1-month low is 287.37 ½. Since 4/15 August’25 Feeder Cattle are 7.57 ½ higher or close to 3%. The Hogs were strong again today. June’25 Hogs were 1.85 higher today and settled at 100.70. Today’s high was 100.95 and the 1-month high is 101.97 ½. Today’s low was 97.75 and the 1-month low is 94.97 ½. Since 4/15 June’25 Lean Hogs are 5.52 ½ higher or almost 6%. I tried to get your attention, and I hope it worked, and you are at least hedged somewhere, if not with me. I still think the Cattle Markets can break a great deal more, so protection from the rest of the potential break is important. Over the last two days the August’25 Fats are down $5.77 ½, with room to slide lower. I still like the 190 level and a 10% break from the close on Tuesday of 211.62 ½, wound put the price at 190.46 ½. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.63 as well. The August’25 Feeders are down $10.17 ½ over the last two trading sessions, and I feel they can continue to break from here. A 10% break from Tuesday’s closing price of 306.00 would put the price at 275.40. I still like the 260-265 level below the 10% pullback, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low sitting at 271.90. If I am right about the 10% pullback, then there is another $20.42 ½ yet to come off the price of the August’25 Feeders. The June’25 Hogs looked good today and settled just 25 cents from the high. The Hogs continue to trade in a range between the 1-month high of 101.97 ½ and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 96.05. Until it settles through either side, I feel it will be range bound. However, if the Cattle Markets continue to break, then all bets are off. The break in the Cattle Markets was bound to happen at some point. Now that the Markets have your attention, if you are not hedged, please do so. If the August’25 Feeders don’t bounce, and do complete a 10% pullback, protection from here will be essential. Give me a call and I can have you covered before the close tomorrow. The Cattle Markets were about 3 dollars away from a limit move today, and if that happens one day, the limits will expand the following day, so you are aware. Be careful out there.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. Take advantage of any pullbacks in these markets. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were mixed again today, with the Soybeans dipping more than 25 cents. The Beans took a hit today but did close 5 ¼ cents off the lows. July’25 Soybeans were 26 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1051 ¼. Today’s high was 1073 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1082. Today’s low was 1046 and the 1-month low is 1036 ½. Since 4/15 July’25 Soybeans are 4 ¾ cents higher or almost 1/2 %. The Corn stayed positive today. July’25 Corn was 3 cents higher today and settled at 448 ½. Today’s high was 450 ½ and the 1-month high is 495. Today’s low was 443 ½ and the 1-month low is 436 ½. Since 4/15 July’25 Corn is 41 cents lower or more than 8%. The Wheat Market continued to make strong gains today. July’25 Wheat was 8 cents higher today and settled at 532 ¾. Today’s high was 533 ¼ and the 1-month high is 569 ¼. Today’s low was 521 ¾ and the contract low is 506 ¼. Since 4/15 July’25 Wheat is 23 ¼ cents lower or more than 4%. A rumor sent the Soybeans lower and put the Soybean Oil locked limit down. It was reported late yesterday that the EPA will need a few more months to complete their review of renewable volume obligations, and that it could be lower than anticipated. I believe the Markets were expecting to hear an answer soon, with the anticipation that the blend rates would be increased. To my knowledge this is still a rumor and has not been confirmed. The way President Trump was talking about the biofuel blend made it sound like an increase was inevitable. I am interested to hear what develops next. I am not throwing in the towel on this market yet. Today the July’25 Soybeans took a hit, but it could have been worse. The July’25 Beans did have a small rally on the close and settled more than 5-cents off the lows. The July’25 Beans also settled above both the 100-Day moving average of 1046 ¼ and the 200-Day moving average of 1047 ¼ as well, along will climbing back over the 1050 level. So, I am still Bullish from here and feel we can see the July’25 Soybeans trade over 1100, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low at 1102 ¼. The Corn had a solid day with the beans taking a dip and managed to have a 3-cent gain on the day. I still feel we need to see the July’25 Corn settle over the 200-Day moving average of 461 ¼ before any sustained rally can occur. I like the Wheat Market and feel we can see it continue to rally. The July’25 Wheat had a great close and settled just ½ a cent below the high of the day. I think the Wheat Market can have a 50-cent rally from here and trade through the 200-Day moving average of 582. It is dry out there and it won’t take much to start a fire under this contract. I still feel that we can see the July’25 Wheat trade as high as the 630-640 range, with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low waiting at 630 ¾. If the Wheat Market takes off like I think it can, you will want to stay behind the windshield and out of the way. Prepare for a move higher now, I can show you how. Have a great night.
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If you don’t like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving at your new and very large brokerage house, you have options, and you don’t have to stay there.
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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