For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
June Lean Hogs gap opened higher and dipped to the low at 99.825, closing the gap and then turning higher to rally the rest of the session to the high at 101.35. It settled near the high at 101.15. Hogs continued its rally today after Thursday’s weak opening tested support at 98.475. Unfortunately, the Friday rally wasn’t able to take out the Wednesday high at 101.425, putting hogs into consolidation mode. The low is at 98.60 for the band. This keeps futures between resistance at 101.975 and the 98.475 support level. China’s cancellations of our exports on the last report didn’t break hogs as the cash markets are in recovery mode and working higher once again. After making lows in the indices last week, the cash markets have rebounded and are giving traders confidence the cheaper protein option could continue to see gains as we progress into the grilling season and see positive seasonal demand. China also eased some on tariffs adding to the positive vibes in the market. Hog supplies seem tight according to the cold storage report so we could see grocers get aggressive in purchasing pork to ready themselves for the season. We’ll see!… If Hogs can rally past the recent 101.425 high, it could test resistance at 101.975. Resistance then comes in at 104.35. A failure from settlement could see price revisit support at 100.075. Support then comes in at 98.475.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 95.77 as of 04/24/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 87.27 as of 04/23/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 485,000, which is above last week’s 398,000 and last year’s 438,272. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 157,000, which is above last week’s 36,000 and last year’s 3,340. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,430,000, which is above last week’s 2,371,000 and last year’s 2,377,844.
August Feeder Cattle gap opened higher and broke down to the low at 292.05, closing the gap. The dip took price just past support at 292.30 and it reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 294.55. Settlement was near the high at 294.30. The rally took Feeders to a new all-time high for the lead contract. The feeder market continues to astound as some areas continue to make new highs for various weight classes. Traders continue to fear that feeder numbers are low and have been willing to seemingly pay whatever price to get cattle under their control. The problem is that the Feeder prices are outpacing cash cattle prices and break evens are surging. They are optimistic about the future but there are some signs of a pulling back as the higher weight classes have started to lag as I am told there is fear the potential for profit is starting to dissipate at these higher prices. 800 # and up are showing signs of topping according to some producers. If this sentiment builds you could see it start to affect the lower weight classes price action. We’ll see!… With a new all-time high established on Friday, we will look at pivot resistance numbers. The daily pivot R1 is at 295.38, R2 is at 296.22 and R3 is at 297.88. Weekly R2 is at 300.85. A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 292.30. Support then comes in at 288.00.
The Feeder Cattle Index jumped and is at 289.88 as of 04/24/2025.
June Live Cattle opened lower and made the low at 207.10. It grinded higher as it rallied to the high at 208.40. It traded on both sides of unchanged as it drifted all session unable to make headway in either direction. It settled near the high at 208.25. It formed an inside candlestick for the second session in a row after making a new all-time high for the lead contract on Wednesday at 208.80. The new all-time high took out the Double-Top formation created at the previous all-time high at 207.725. You would think this would ignite bulls fire and see a surge in price, especially with cash prices strengthening. But there was little fire in cattle bulls, and the price action was tame. With cut-out prices lagging, maybe traders are fearing a top coming despite strong cash prices. We have rallied a long way without any pullbacks in the futures market and cut-out prices have been unable to take-off to give packers incentive to buy cattle. Even when the cut-out increases appreciably like it did on Friday the load count disappoints, indicating the grocer industry will limit purchases if they feel price is out of their preferred range. With production near last year’s levels maybe grocers don’t feel the urgency to get aggressive to buy beef for the upcoming grilling season. The slowdown in slaughter has not reduced production in any meaningful way and the retail industry still has some time before they will likely need to get more aggressive on purchases. The packer has slowed slaughter again this week yet are still paying up for cattle. The live cattle market traded as high as 218.00 on Friday, a new all-time high on the mandatory report. The south also saw strong prices and we could see a new all-time high average price for live cattle this week, in my opinion. Exports tanked, but no-one seems to care. Demand is strong for beef despite high prices, though some cracks are starting to show. Consumers are worried but still eating. And, they are eating beef, even though it is the hamburger that is driving demand. Will the packer keep getting beat-up from both sides( retail/ Producer)? We’ll see!… If price trades below settlement, it could test support at 207.725. A breakdown below here could see support tested at 205.55. If price can overcome the all-time high, pivot resistance comes into play. R1 is at 208.76, R2 is at 209.23 and R3 is at 210.07. Weekly R2 is at 212.23.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.78 to 336.48 and select surged 3.76 to 320.11. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 16.37 and the load count was 96.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 82,000, which is below last week’s 89,000 and below last year’s 111,173. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 7,000, which is below last week’s 10,000 and last year’s 11,686. The estimated total for the week(so far) is 555,000, which is below last week’s 576,000 and last year’s 613,723.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in all trading regions. A few live FOB purchases in the Texas Panhandle traded at 212.00. In the Western Cornbelt, a few live FOB purchases traded at 218.00. However, not enough in any region for a market trend. Last week in the Texas Panhandle, live FOB purchases traded from 208.00-210.00. For the prior week in Kansas, live FOB purchases traded at 210.00. Last week in Nebraska, live FOB purchases traded from 212.00-214.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded from 332.00-340.00. For the prior week in the Western Cornbelt, live FOB purchases traded at 212.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded at 335.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 208.00 – 218.00 and from 335.00 – 342,000 on a dressed basis (so far).
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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