The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 63.67 (+1.26) [+2.02%], high of 64.36, low of 61.76. Spot price is 63.08 (-1.58). Open interest for CLM25 is 315,151. CLM25 settled above its 5 day (62.50), below its 20 day (64.63), below its 50 day (66.89), below its 100 day (68.56), below its 200 day (69.23) and below its year-to date (68.66) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 67.44 (+1.18) [+1.78%], high of 68.04, low of 66.55. Spot Brent price is 66.27 (-1.67). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (66.40), below its 20 day (68.45), below its 50 day (70.58), below its 100 day (72.18), below its 200 day (73.21) and below its year-to-date (72.28) moving averages.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/15/25 showed Commercials with a net short position of -187,774 (a increase in short positions by 3,136 from the previous week) and Non-Commercials who are net long +176,202 (a increase in long positions by 7,095 from the previous week)
Today’s American Petroleum Institute report for the week ending April 18, 2025 estimates US crude oil inventories had a large -4.564 million barrel draw. Gasoline is forecasted to have had a -2.180mb draw and Distillates had a draw of -1.640mb. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub is forecasted to have had a draw of 354,000 barrels.
China has accused the US of misusing tariffs and cautioned other nations against entering broader economic agreements with Washington that could disadvantage Beijing “China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” China’s Commerce Ministry said. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner. China is determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights and interests.” In a private JP Morgan interview today, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the ongoing tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expressed confidence that tensions will begin to ease but when asked about current negotiations with China he said it “will be a slog”, as reported by Politico sources.
Russia has lowered its forecast for oil and gas export revenues for 2025–2027, citing weaker oil prices as the reason for a projected 15% drop in energy earnings this year, according to an Economy Ministry document seen by Reuters. The Ministry also revised its 2025 oil production outlook downward to 10.32 million barrels per day, unchanged from 2024 levels and slightly below its previous estimate of 518.6 million tons. Russia’s Economy Ministry also lowered its 2025 forecast for the average price of Brent crude by nearly 17% compared to its previous September estimate for this year, the Interfax news agency reported Monday.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its growth forecasts for the US, China, and most other countries, citing the impact of US tariffs. The IMF now expects global growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5% from its January forecast, and to 3% in 2026. The US growth outlook was cut by 0.9% to 1.8% in 2025, a steep decline from the 2.8% projected for 2024. US growth for 2026 was revised down by 0.4 point to 1.7%. China’s growth forecast was reduced to 4% for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting downward revisions of 0.6% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026.
Eight members of OPEC+ who have exceeded voluntary production quotas, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE will have to compensate for 4.57 million bpd in overproduction, the compensation plans stipulate that the eight members must offset all above-quota output by June of next year. Last month the eight OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to raise production starting in May by 411,000 bpd. OPEC data published today showed that the total backlog of overdue compensation cuts has increased by about 139 million barrels (9%). Iraq said they plan on cutting their April production by 70,000 bdp to comply with quotas.
The latest Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 rig, to a total of 481, 30 rigs lower than this time last year. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 98.
Price Thoughts – Oil was supported off short-covering and the broader market recovery on Turnaround-Tuesday, in my opinion. It’s also seasonally, when demand begins to pick up ahead of the summer months. Tonight’s API figure came in with a decent sized draw, but over the past few weeks their number has been very unreliable in my opinion when you compare it to official EIA data released on Wednesday mornings, so we’ll have to wait and see on that. In the geopolitical sphere of the oil equation, the progress between the US and Iran for a potential nuclear deal has weighed on oil prices, as recent sanctions on Iran’s energy could potentially be removed as part of an agreement. Elsewhere the dollar index has continued to decline, dipping over -8% this year, with its worst start since 1995. Crude may continue to trade in its near-term range of $59-$63 for WTI and $67-$61 for Brent until positive headlines generate, as the tighter supply/demand situation has taken a backseat to the macroeconomic picture.
Technically short-term resistance is $63 (which we settled above to the upside today) and the $59 handle is supportive in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $67 (which we settled above to the upside today) and $61. Above that $63 resistance for WTI – $65 looks to be the next hurdle to clear, and for Brent above $67 would be that round figure $70. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly US EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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Jim Rinaudo
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