The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 62.41 (-1.60) [-2.50%], high of 63.78, low of 61.76. Spot price is 64.66 (+2.17). Open interest for CLM25 is 323,773. CLM25 settled above its 5 day (62.07), below its 20 day (64.91) , below its 50 day (67.03), below its 100 day (68.61), below its 200 day (69.30) and below its year-to date (68.73) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 66.26 (-1.70) [-2.50%], high of 67.78, low of 65.68. Spot Brent price is 67.94 (+2.08). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (65.98), below its 20 day (68.72), below its 50 day (70.72), below its 100 day (72.23), below its 200 day (73.28) and below its year-to-date (72.35) moving averages.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/15/25 showed Commercials with a net short position of -187,774 (a increase in short positions by 3,136 from the previous week) and Non-Commercials who are net long +176,202 (a increase in long positions by 7,095 from the previous week)
China has accused the US of misusing tariffs and cautioned other nations against entering broader economic agreements with Washington that could disadvantage Beijing, China’s Commerce Ministry stated it would “resolutely and reciprocally” take countermeasures against any deal made at its expense. Last week the US Treasury announced new sanctions on a Chinese teapot refinery accused of funneling over $1 billion worth of Iranian oil. Alongside the refinery, the US also imposed sanctions on a Chinese terminal operator and eight vessels tied to the “shadow fleet” transporting Iranian oil. According to data from Vortexa, Iranian crude shipments to China grew to a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March. China’s crude oil imports rose in March, up nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in Iranian oil and Russian shipments, according to data released Monday. Imports hit 12.1 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since August 2023, based on Reuters’ analysis of customs data. This was up from 11.55 million bpd in March 2024 and 10.38 million bpd during the January-February period.
Eight members of OPEC+ who have exceeded voluntary production quotas, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE will have to compensate for 4.57 million bpd in overproduction, the compensation plans stipulate that the eight members must offset all above-quota output by June of next year. Last month the eight OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to raise production starting in May by 411,000 bpd. OPEC data published today showed that the total backlog of overdue compensation cuts has increased by about 139 million barrels (9%). Iraq said they plan on cutting their April production by 70,000 bdp to comply with quotas.
Last week’s US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 11, 2025 showed US commercial crude oil inventories had a build of +515,000 barrels, bringing inventories to a total of 442.9 million barrels, seasonally inventories are about 6% lower than the 5-year average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6 million barrels per day, imports fell by -189,000 bpd compared to the week prior. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million bdp, a -64,000 bdp decrease from the previous week. Crude refineries operated at 86.3% capacity. Domestic oil production increased from 13.458 million bdp to 13.462 million bdp. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by -2.1 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by +300,000 barrels. This marks the third consecutive week of U.S. inventory builds.
The latest Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 rig, to a total of 481, 30 rigs lower than this time last year. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 98.
Price Thoughts – Crude joined in on the broader market sell off as positive headlines tariff headlines coming into this morning were sparse, with the US stock markets sinking nearly 3% and the dollar index falling to a 3-year low. Oil prices gave back on Thursday’s large gains which had moved prices in the front traded months above key resistance-lines. Crude may continue to trade in it’s near-term range of $59-$63 for WTI and $67-$61 for Brent until positive headlines generate, as the tighter supply/demand situation has taken a backseat to the macroeconomic picture.
Technically short-term resistance is $63 (which we settled below to the downsie today) and the $59 handle is supportive in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $67 (which we settled below to the downside today.) and $61. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly U.S. EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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Jim Rinaudo
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