For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
May Feeder Cattle opened higher and rallied to the session high at 288.35. The rally took price just past resistance at 288.00 but it stopped right at the April 2nd high. The market reversed course and broke down to the session low at 285.10. It settled near the low at 285.525. The initial rally was all about the excitement over a new all-time high in the Feeder Index and strong finish on Friday for the live cattle cash market, in my opinion. The breakdown was led by a weakening outside market as talk of the president wanting to fire the Federal Reserve chairman spooked the Equity markets and then we heard rumors of a lower index and the rout was on, sending price on a tailspin, bringing price down towards the Thursday low. The index did falter, showing declines over the holiday which is surprising since most of the commentary was about soaring feeder prices that were making new highs in various markets. I think the weak prices were likely Mexican cattle that were sold at bargain basement prices. That must be the cause because anyone selling US cattle at low prices aren’t watching the rest of the major selling areas that had feedlots bidding ever higher for cattle. We’ll see!… Feeders settled below support at 286.55 which is damaging after a solid open. A breakdown from settlement could see price move towards support at 282.35. If settlement holds, we could revisit resistance at 286.55 and then 288.00.
The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 289.30 as of 04/18/2025.
June Live Cattle opened higher and raced past resistance at 205.55 to the high at 206.175. It reversed course and plummeted to the low at 203.40. It settled near the low at 203.75. The breakdown took price just past support at 203.50 and a little consolidation hear saw price settle above support. The market started out with enthusiasm as cash prices surged last Thursday and Friday, taking live cash prices as high as 215.00 and 345.00 on a dressed basis. The enthusiasm withered away with the breakdown in the equity markets and the political turmoil between the President and the Fed chairman. This caused traders to pullback, fearing cash can’t sustain the high prices if the Equity markets continue to feel the pressure, which could limit consumer interest in high beef prices. The packer cannot get beef prices moving higher so far as the retail industry pulls back when they try to raise prices. The lower slaughter numbers haven’t helped the packer as the heavy weights have kept production at solid levels. The grocers must be trying to move beef early during the Easter holiday as at least one grocery store had ribeye’s going for $7.99 a pound for which I was grateful for as I made my way through the store. There weren’t many left for me to buy as the person behind the counter said they were selling really well, limiting what I was able to purchase. The sale expires on Tuesday, so I hope to get back take advantage. Cutouts were up on Monday but it looks like the interest in the higher prices were limited. We’ll see!… If price trades l below support at 203.50 it could pullback and test support at the flattening 21-DMA now at 201.375. Long-term support is nearby at 200.90. If price can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 205.55. Resistance is next at the double top all-time high at 207.725.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 2.00 to 333.52 and select jumped 3.22 to 318.77. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 14.75 and the load count was 75.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 100,000, which is below last week’s 112,000 and last year’s 112,211.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Nebraska. In the Western Cornbelt, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on very light demand. Last week in the Texas Panhandle, live FOB purchases traded from 208.00-210.00. For the prior week in Kansas, live FOB purchases traded at 210.00. Last week in Nebraska, live FOB purchases traded from 212.00-214.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded from 332.00-340.00. For the prior week in the Western Cornbelt, live FOB purchases traded at 212.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded at 335.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.