John S. Simpson Jr., Senior Market Strategist, Walsh Trading
Date: April 16, 2025
Corn Futures (ZCN25)
Corn futures continue to trend higher. Initial upside targets at $485 were reached on April 10, followed by $493/$494 on April 11. We’re now seeing a technical pullback, offering a potential buy zone near $483.
In my opinion, support must hold above $479 to maintain bullish structure. If this level holds, we could see upside targets back at $494 and $500.
Soybeans (ZSN25)
The long position from $1006 on April 9 hit its first target of $1058 on April 14. A minor correction followed, but the uptrend remains intact.
I’m watching a new entry zone between $1031–$1035, with confirmation above $1040 triggering fresh upside targets at $1058 and $1077. Strong support lies at $1019.
Soybean Meal (ZMN25)
Meal futures broke lower, triggering a short entry at $302 on April 15. We’re now targeting the downside at:
- $298.70
- $297.50
- $296.00
This market continues to show relative weakness compared to beans and oil.
Soybean Oil (ZLN25)
Oil futures hit our $44.44 target on April 9, then surged to a high of $48.41 on April 15.
In my opinion, this rally looks overextended, and we are now waiting for a pullback to buy near $46.96 or $46.30, with support at $45.27 (Fibonacci 50%). Next target higher: $49.50.
Chicago Wheat (ZWN25)
Wheat broke a critical support level at $560 on April 15, triggering a short position.
With this breakdown, we’re now targeting $547 and $540. I view this as a potential shift toward bearish momentum unless the market can reclaim $560.
COT Report Highlights (as of April 11, 2025)
- Corn: Managed Money remains net long, but trimmed exposure slightly last week. Watch for further reductions if prices fail to bounce from $479.
- Soybeans: Large specs added to length, particularly in oil. Meal remains under pressure as commercial selling increases.
- Wheat: Specs remain net short and added to positions last week, supporting the current downside move. Commercials are lightly covering.
Market Overview
Grain markets remain supported by tightening global stock estimates and continued weather risk in South America. However, mixed macro factors and recent technical resistance are driving short-term corrections.
USDA planting intentions and weather will likely be the next major catalysts. Keep an eye on evolving fund positioning as seen in the latest COT data.
Great Thought of the Day
“Trends don’t just move markets—they reveal what the market is quietly shouting. Your job is to listen before it starts yelling.”
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
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