4/15/25
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The Livestock Markets rallied again today. The Fats settled in the middle of the range today. June’25 Live Cattle were 72 ½ cents higher today and settled at 199.80. Today’s high was 200.52 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 199.07 ½ and the 1-month low is 191.80. Since 3/14 June’25 Live Cattle are 0.45 higher or fractionally higher. The Feeders settled near the highs today. May’25 Feeder Cattle were 1.57 ½ higher today and settled at 282.52 ½. Today’s high was 282.87 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 290.62 ½. Today’s low was 280.95 and the 1-month low is 267.20. Since 3/14 May’25 Feeder Cattle are 12 ½ cents lower or fractionally higher. The Hogs were able to stay positive today and gained a nickel. June’25 Hogs were 5 cents higher today and settled at 95.17 ½. Today’s high was 96.20 and the 1-month high is 99.70. Today’s low was 94.55 and the 1-month low is 88.00. Since 3/14 June’25 Lean Hogs are 1.12 ½ lower or more than 1%. There is a Cattle on Feed Report in two days. It sounds like the Cattle are now coming through the Mexican Border much faster than they have been. I heard that the Placements could be much higher than expected as well. The Funds are still long, and if it is a Bearish report, it could get ugly quick on Monday. The Funds will have three days to think about it as well with the Markets closed for Good Friday, this Friday. There could be some selling coming into the report as well. All of the moving average sit well below the current levels in the Fats and Feeders. I still like the 190 level in the June’25 Fats for starters. The 100-Day moving average is 193.08, the 1-month low is 191.80, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 188.98, and the 200-Day moving average is 186.40. For the Feeders I still like the 260-265 level for the first move lower. In the May’25 Feeders the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 259.13, and the 200-Day moving average is 257.13. The June’25 Hogs traded above the 96.05 level today but were unable to hold on and ran out of steam just 4 cents below the 200-Day moving average of 96.24. 96.05 is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. If the June’25 Hogs can trade through the 200-Day, then I feel they have a good shot of trading back up to the 100-Day moving average of 99.54.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. I like The Wheat at 650, still. Watch the Soybean Oil Run Higher from Here. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were a little lower today. The Beans closed 3 ¼ cents off the highs today. July’25 Soybeans were 3 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1046 ½. Today’s high was 1049 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1059. Today’s low was 1039 ¾ and the 1-month low is 985. Since 3/14 July’25 Soybeans are 16 ½ cents higher or more than 1 ½ %. The Corn settled 2 ½ cents above the low today. May’25 Corn was 3 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 489 ½. Today’s high was 496 and the 1-month high is 497 ½. Today’s low was 487 and the 1-month low is 450 ½. Since 3/14 July’25 Corn is 22 cents higher or almost 5%. The Wheat Market looks ready to run higher. May’25 Wheat was 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 556. Today’s high was 565 and the 1-month high is 591 ½. Today’s low was 554 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract low is 532 ½. Since 3/14 July’25 Wheat is 17 cents lower or almost 3%. The Grains looked like they were set to take off today, but we will have to wait another day to see that happen. The July’25 Beans traded just a ¼ of a cent from the 1050 level, and I feel that will be taken out soon. The 200-Day moving average is 1053 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1059. If those two levels are traded through, then my next level higher is 1103 ¾, and that is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. I think the Beans can trade higher from there as well. The July’25 Corn traded to within 1 ½ cents of the 1-month high of 497 ½, and if traded through, I would expect it to try and trade through the 5.00 level. With the increased Corn acreage this year I feel it will take a weather market or a trade deal to trade much higher than 5.20. If either one happens, it will climb fast if demand stays strong. I like the Wheat Market still, and I feel we can a big swing higher soon. If there is a trade deal reached, or any small weather hiccup, the Wheat can race higher. This year’s plantings will be the second smallest Wheat crop since 1919. If there are any crop problems or demand issues, I feel the July’25 Wheat can trade up to 650 quickly. If it heads that way, the 200-Day moving average is 589 ¾ and the 1-month high is 591 ½. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 644 and I feel it can trade there. July’25 Corn, Bean, and Wheat Options expire in 66-Days on 6/20/25. The Soybean Oil looked great today and settled over a dollar higher in the May’25 contract. July’25 was 99 cents higher and the September’25 was 96 cents higher. I still feel there can be a $20 run higher in the Soybean Oil, and that will bring the Meal and Beans higher with it. The Crush report today showed Soybean Oil stocks lower than anticipated. I still like the 65 level or higher is the September Contract. The September’25 Bean Oil traded to within 65 cents of the contract high today and if traded through, the rally will begin. The July’25 Bean Oil traded to within 60 cents of the 1-month high and 1.05 from the contract high. Any trade deals will ignite these grain contracts and think we can see new trade deals sooner than later, especially after a three-day Easter weekend. All Markets will be closed this Friday, for Good Friday. Have a great night.
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I feel the July’25 Soybeans can trade: 11.20
I feel the July’25 Corn can trade: 5.20
I feel the July’25 Wheat can trade: 6.50
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
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