The May WTI (CLK25) contract settled at 60.07 (-2.28) [-3.66%], high of 63.34, low of 58.76. Spot price is 62.25 (+2.61). Open interest for CLK25 is 258,227. CLK25 settled below its 5 day (60.96), below its 20 day (66.87), below its 50 day (68.48), below its 100 day (69.38), below its 200 day (70.04) and below its year-to date (69.80) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 63.33 (-2.15) [-3.28%], high of 66.23, low of 62.01. Spot Brent price is 65.36 (+2.49). QAM25 settled below its 5 day (64.31), below its 20 day (70.20), below its 50 day (71.73), below its 100 day (72.61), below its 200 day (73.74) and below its year-to-date (72.92) moving averages.
The latest COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/1/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -195,602 (a decrease in short positions by 13,286 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +185,522 (a decrease in long positions by 11,539 from the previous week)
Yesterday, the White House placed a 90-day pause on the original reciprocal tariff rate, while reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%, excluding current tariff rates on Mexico and Canada, and finally increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% (this was upped to 145% this morning) effective immediately. In a statement posted on his Truth Social Platform President Trump said “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately.” and “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.” Reuters reported that top Chinese officials from the State Council and regulatory bodies will hold a meeting, possibly as soon as this week, to discuss further measures to boost their economy, domestic consumption and calm their capital markets, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Yesterday, China placed a 84% retaliatory tariff, up from the 34% previously announced. Sources told Reuters that the Trump administration is considering revising its proposed fee on China-linked ships visiting U.S. ports, following a wave of negative feedback from industries warning that the measure could have severe economic consequences. Over the last few days, the Chinese Yuan has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since 2007.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration decreased its global oil demand growth forecast for this year today. The EIA sees growth of 900,000 barrels per day, down from the previously estimated 1.2 million barrels per day. For 2026, the forecast was downgraded to 1.1 million barrels per day, lowered from the earlier estimate of 1.2 million barrels per day.
This week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration data for the week ending April 4, showed U.S. crude oil inventories increased by +2.6 million barrels from the previous week, above forecasts of a +1.4 million barrel build, to a total of 442.3 million barrels, which are about 5% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 277,000 barrels per day from the prior week, and 6.9% less than the same four-week period last year. U.S. crude refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 69,000 barrels per day more than the prior week. Refineries operated at 86.7% capacity. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels per day, down -1.9% from the same period last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories expanded by +1.2 million barrels last week. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub had a build of +636,000 barrels. This marks the second week in a row of an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.
The Keystone pipeline is currently offline after a spill on Tuesday caused a shutdown. After declaring force majeure, South Bow Corp. said the situation had been contained and the incident caused an estimated loss of approximately 3,500 barrels. This is the third spill since 2017. On a daily basis the Keystone XL pipeline carries about 626,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs increased by 5, to a total of 489, which is the highest total since this past June. U.S. gas rigs fell by 7, to a total of 96, and the biggest weekly decline since May 2023 and lowest total since this past September. Seasonally the total rig count is about 5% compared to this time last year and 20% lower.
SPX: 5,268.05 (-2.50%) DIJA: 39,593.66 (-2.50%) NDX: 16,387.31 (-4.31%) DXY: 101.11 (-1.74%)
FTSE100: (+3.04%) DAX: (+4.53%) CSI300: (+1.31%) HSI: (+2.06%) NIKKEI: (+9.13%)
Price Thoughts – We’ll it seems like the market realized the U.S. is still in the middle of a trade war with China, that 25% tariffs still remain on Mexico and Canada (excluding energy), and 10% blanket tariffs on 75 countries are still in effect for potentially 90-days, with a chance to return to last Wednesday’s Liberation Day levels. Technically the upper $63 resistance held, while the lower $59 handle support held as well. Who knows what the headline’s bring tomorrow, but we’ll find out how many rigs were added or decreased via the Baker Hughes report.
Technically short-term resistance is $63, above that $65. New short term support is in the low $59 to $58 range, below that there’s support in the $56 handle. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost and the weekly EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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