COT Analysis
As of the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, managed money positions reflect growing bullish sentiment in corn and soybeans. Speculators have reduced their net short positions in corn, indicating a shift in sentiment that aligns with technical rebound signals. Soybean contracts also saw a moderate increase in long positions, supporting the idea of a broader reversal. In wheat, however, managed money remains net short, with only a minor reduction in bearish exposure. This suggests caution remains warranted despite recent support holding. Meal and oil saw mixed flows—meal remains under pressure while oil attracted fresh selling after recent highs.
In a market environment this fluid, COT positioning can be a valuable signal—but not a certainty. Traders must continue to watch price action closely for confirmation and remain adaptable.
Corn (ZCN25 – July)
July corn held the support zone at 450/451 as of the USDA report on March 31, forming a triple bottom with March 4 and March 28. This pattern hints at a bullish reversal. Entry points lie in the 457–460 range, with an opportunity to add on pullbacks toward 450. For confirmation of a broader uptrend, the market must remain above 470/471 (50% Fibonacci level). If this holds, the next profit targets are 485 and 493/494.
Soybeans (ZSN25)
Soybeans broke from a triangular pattern to the upside, signaling a potential rebound. A long was initiated at 1008 with the first profit target hit at 1031 on March 27 and the second at 1042 on March 31. However, the market topped out at 1049-6 on April 1 and turned lower. Current strategy includes buying at 1006 with upside targets at 1035 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1058, and 1077.
Wheat (ZWN25)
A strong downtrend defined recent action in the July 2025 Wheat contract (ZWN25), breaking through key support at 560 and 555 on March 26. Downside targets at 540 were achieved on March 28. However, the chart has since flashed signs of a possible reversal. A long position was initiated at 547 on April 7. For a confirmed bullish trend, the market must hold above 560. If support holds, the next upside targets are 585 and 594.
Soybean Meal (ZMN25)
Meal continues its bearish trajectory, breaking lower below 305 on March 25. Key downside targets at 300 and 290 were achieved by April 4. A potential reversal setup could emerge from 290 with confirmation of an uptrend above 300. If the rally is sustained, resistance levels to watch are 311 and 316.
Soybean Oil (ZLN25)
Long initiated at 42.30 on March 17. Targets of 44.34 and 45.50 were reached by March 28, with 48.00 hit on April 2. However, after peaking at 49.00 on April 2, the market sold off sharply. A short was initiated at 47.70 on April 3 with downside targets at 44.44 and 43.30.
Final Thoughts
Markets are at key inflection points following recent breakouts and pullbacks. The situation remains fluid, and traders should remain nimble. Discipline around entry zones, confirmation levels, and profit targets remains essential. Watch for confirmation of trend reversals and be ready to pivot as price action dictates.
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
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“The clearest signals often come from the quietest corners of the chart—wait, watch, and act with precision.”
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Until we meet again, may your risk be measured, your gains be steady, and your vision be clear.
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