The May WTI (CLK25) contract settled at 59.58 (-1.12) [-1.85%], high of 61.75, low of 57.88. Spot price is 60.65 (-1.37). Open interest for CLK25 is 258,227. CLK25 settled below its 5 day (63.95), below its 20 day (67.37), below its 50 day (68.88), below its 100 day (69.49), below its 200 day (70.18) and below its year-to date (70.04) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 62.82 (-1.39) [-2.16%], high of 65.19, low of 61.28. Spot Brent price is 64.15 (-1.48). QAM25 settled below its 5 day (67.32), below its 20 day (70.69), below its 50 day (72.10), below its 100 day (72.74), below its 200 day (73.89) and below its year-to-date (73.16) moving averages.
The latest COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/1/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -195,602 (a decrease in short positions by 13,286 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +185,522 (a decrease in long positions by 11,539 from the previous week)
The White House confirmed that an additional 50% tariff would be put on China, beginning tomorrow morning, after both sides were not able to settle trade disputes over the two-day deadline Trump placed on Beijing. Total levies now round out to 104% on imports from China. Posting on his Truth Social account Presiden Trump said “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately,” Last Friday, China’s Finance Ministry responded to Trump’s tariffs by imposing a 34% levy on all U.S. goods.In a statement released this morning the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake,” In other tariff news, European Union officials said they are considering announcing counter-tariffs on 25% of some U.S. goods.
Today’s American Petroleum Institute forecasts that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories had a drawdown of -1.057 million barrels of crude oil. Gasoline stocks were forecasted to have a build of +207,000. Distillates had a draw of -1.844 million. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub had a build of +636,000 barrels and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve added +300,000 barrels.
Eight of the twelve OPEC+ members, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kazakhstan, have agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. “This comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments,” the grouping said. This marks a significant revision from the earlier plan, which had called for an increase of 135,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ aims to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day of output. The eight countries are set to speak again May 5th to determine their production levels for June. A Reuters survey released this morning estimates OPEC’s oil output in March fell by 110,000 barrels per day compared to February, bringing total production to 26.63 million b/d, with Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria each having a decline of 50,000 b/d.
The Keystone pipeline was shut down this morning after a spill was reported. As of this post the volume of crude oil leaked is not known. This is the third spill since 2017. The last Keystone leak caused a loss of about 14,000 barrels of crude.
Over the weekend Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its Arab Light crude oil to Asia, by $2.30 per barrel for buyers in May, which marks a $1.20 premium above the Oman/Dubai average. This was the largest price cut since 2022 and is the second price cut by Aramco over the last two months.
On Sunday Goldman Sachs lowered its WTI oil price forecast for December 2025 by $4 to $58 per barrel, with an average of $55, and $62 per barrel for Brent, with an average barrel price of $58.
Last week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration data for the week ending March 28th showed U.S. crude oil inventories grew by 6.165 million barrels (against a forecast of a -0.5mb draw). U.S. oil inventories are about 4% below their five-year seasonal average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.4 million barrels. U.S. oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day, a decrease of -192,000 b/d from the prior week, while oil refineries operated at 86% capacity. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, an increase of +271,000 barrels per day compared to the week prior. Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 20.1 million barrels per day, down -1.2% from the same time last year. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub was reported to have a build of +2.373 million barrels.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs increased by 5, to a total of 489, which is the highest total since this past June. U.S. gas rigs fell by 7, to a total of 96, and the biggest weekly decline since May 2023 and lowest total since this past September. Seasonally the total rig count is about 5% compared to this time last year and 20% lower.
SPX: 4,982.77 (-1.57%) DIJA: 37,645.59 (-0.84%) NDX: 15,267.91 (-2.15%) DXY: 102.96 (-0.29%)
FTSE100: (+2.71%) DAX: (+2.48%) CSI300: (+1.71%) HSI: (+1.51%) NIKKEI: (+6.03%)
Price Thoughts – Oil was trending over a percent higher along with the broader indexes until news broke mid-day that Trump would go ahead tomorrow with his additional 50% tariff increase on China, which would also be immediately put into effect, which cratered oil futures 3% and sent prices to 4-year lows. This is a market that is flipping on a dime and is heavily sensitive to changes in tariff stance, rather than near-term supply/demand and seasonal trends. I’d advise trading with caution and be at the ready for the latest headlines if you’re looking to put on a position.
Technically I see near-term support at $59 (which we broke below after the China tariff announcement), while short-term resistance looks like $63, above that $65. New short term support is in the $56 handle. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines and weekly EIA reports.
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Jim Rinaudo
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