The May WTI (CLK25) trading session settled at 66.91 (+0.16) [+0.24%], a high of 67.43, a low of 66.09. Cash price is at 66.87 (-0.72), while open interest for CLK25 is 314,463. CLK25 settled above its 5 day (66.86) , below its 20 day (67.85), below its 50 day (70.62), below its 100 day (69.63), below its 200 day (70.57) and below its year-to date (70.70) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 3/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -212,629 (a decrease in short positions by 2,801 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +194,324 (a increase in long positions by 10,102 from the previous week)
June’25 Brent Crude contract settled at 70.32 (+0.20) [+0.29%]
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Today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly report showed U.S. crude oil inventories had a build of +1.7 million barrels (much lower than API’s build of +4.593 million barrels estimate), to a total of 437 million barrels. Seasonally inventories are about 5% lower than their five-year average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.4 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of -85,000 bdp compared to the week prior. U.S. oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day, a -45,000 bpd decline compared to the prior week, refineries operated at 86.9% capacity last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by +1.6 million barrels last week. Total petroleum products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up +2.5% year-over-year. U.S. crude oil inventories have had builds 7 out of the last 8 weeks.
Yesterday on Truth Social Trump said “My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one. We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.” This comes after the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said a drone strike was carried out on the Moscow Oil Refinery on March 11th, the Moscow Oil Refinery is one of the largest refiners in Russia, processing up to 11 million metric tons of oil per year, covering 40 to 50 percent of Moscow’s gasoline and diesel supplies. Today Ukraine agreed to support the agreement, which calls for both nations to refrain from targeting each other’s energy infrastructure for 30-days. However, hours after Putin assured Trump Russia would halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on energy facilities in the Ukrainian city of Slovyansk, according to local reports. Ceasefire negotiations are scheduled to resume this Sunday in Saudi Arabia, according to Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak told Russian state media TASS that Russia’s oil production this year is forecasted to be slightly lower compared to 2024, Russia anticipates producing ~515 million tons of oil this year. Russian crude flows in the four weeks to March 9th increased by 300,000 barrels per day, which was the largest four week gain since January 2023, per Reuters.
China tapped into their crude stockpiles in the first two months of 2025, the first time doing such in 18 months, as refiners processed more crude while imports decreased, Reuters said citing official data. For the January-February months Chinese refineries averaged about 30,000 barrels per day more than the total crude available. On Sunday China’s State Council announced plans to “vigorously boost consumption” in what it dubbed a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s Industrial Production grew to 5.9% in the first two months of 2025 from a year ago, above economists 5.3% forecast, although Industrial Production declined from the 6.2% growth rate posted in December. President Trump said that a meeting with President Xi Jinping will happen in the “not too distant future.” China’s Shanghai 300 Index closed higher by +0.06%.
The Trans Niger Pipeline suffered an explosion the local Nigerian government said, the pipeline transports roughly 450,000 barrels per day.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed the number of U.S. oil rigs increased by +1, to a total of 487, year over year it is -23 rigs lower. Canada’s oil rigs declined by -31, to a total of 139.
The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all closed higher. The Dollar Index closed higher by +0.22%, settling at 103.47.
Price Thoughts – Yesterday’s API private survey data came in nowhere close to today’’s EIA official Department of Energy data, as the EIA showed significantly less of a build than API’s forecast, providing support to oil prices. As for the geopolitical component, it seems the market is weighing possible Russian energy sanctions heavier than they are weighing what’s happened over the past 5 days between Israel and Hamas, which could lead to a wider conflict, although in my opinion, both Red Sea disruptions and new Iranian oil sanctions are bearish.
WTI Crude oil broke above its $67 short-term resistance / long-term support line again, while Brent sustained above its $70.00 level. Again the headline trading is leading the market move, while the global supply/demand and weakening USD situation has set a ceiling and floor, in my opinion.
$65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s still resistance in the $67 handle, above that $70, above that $74.50. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$75 range rather than the $70-$80 range for 2025 for WTI.
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Jim Rinaudo
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