For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 18, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Feeder Cattle opened lower and down ticked to the low at 280.975. Price rallied the rest of the session to the high at 284.35. It settled near the high at 284.20. It was another breakout to another new all-time high for the lead contract as the Cash fundamentals continue to strengthen as fears continue to grow over the supply of cattle. Various steer weights have been setting new records week by week and we are seeing 7-weights break above 300.00 with last week’s average at 303.05 according to the National Beef Wire. The momentum continues to build and the question that comes to mind is when will it exhaust itself? Producers have to be feeling the heat and the FOMO that is driving price could lead to an unsustainable price surge as the producers panic buying proceeds. Eventually someone is going to think price is too high and go home and then others could follow. The air is getting thin and it might need a drop off to a lower level to catch a breath, before continuing on. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 282.35. Support then comes in at the rising 8-DMA now at 279.40. If settlement holds, we could test R2 resistance at 286.50. Resistance then comes in at R3 at 288.65.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 283.27 as of 03/13/2025.
June Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the April contract. It opened higher and traded to the session low at 199.20. Price turned around and grinded higher the rest of the session to the high at 201.175. Solid cash trading on Friday brought the cash average higher for the second week in a row, jumping to 205.30 from 200.28. The surge is almost 8 bucks above the low established 3-weeks ago at 197.65. This set the stage for the enthusiasm in the futures market on Monday, in my opinion. Traders are ignoring any negative news that may be out there such as the Chinese reluctance to extend the export registrations for more than 1,000 US meat plants that lapsed on Sunday. The registrations were set up during the 2020 trade agreement with China and could limit US access to the Chinese market. Traders probably think (likely correctly) that the Chines will extend the registrations as it seems they aren’t stopping exports from the US(so far). Expectations are for cash prices to continue higher with trade not expected until later in the week as it has been occurring for a long while. We have the Cattle on Feed report on Friday which could affect trade as estimates come out later in the week. The bullishness in the market is once again reaching a fever pitch after the recent pullback at the beginning of March. Slaughter levels were revised lower on Monday for last week but production remains strong and cutouts are starting to move higher as the rib market is coming into favor earlier than expected. This likely emboldens producers to hold out for higher prices even more than they would if the cutouts stay on the weak side. We’ll see!… If price can’t hold settlement, it could re-test support at 199.10. Support then comes in at the rising 50-DMA now at 197.95. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 203.50. Resistance then comes in at 205.55.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.89 to 321.16 and select increased 1.58 to 307.90. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 13.26 and the load count was 104.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 114,000, which is below last week’s 115,000 and last year’s 117,837.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday negotiated cash trade has been at a standstill in all regions. Last week in the Southern Plains, live FOB purchases traded from 202.00-203.00. Last week in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt live FOB purchases traded at 206.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded at 325.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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