The May WTI (CLK25) trading session settled at 67.37 (+0.46) [+0.69%], a high of 68.10, a low of 67.06. Cash price is at 67.17 (+0.61), while open interest for CLK25 is 295,741. CLK25 settled above its 5 day (66.76), below its 20 day (68.33), below its 50 day (70.83), below its 100 day (69.69), below its 200 day (70.63) and below its year-to date (70.85) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 3/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -212,629 (a decrease in short positions by 2,801 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +194,324 (a increase in long positions by 10,102 from the previous week)
June’25 Brent Crude contract settled at 70.60 (+0.54) [+0.77%]
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China tapped into their crude stockpiles in the first two months of 2025, the first time doing such in 18 months, as refiners processed more crude while imports decreased, Reuters said citing official data. For the January-February months Chinese refineries averaged about 30,000 barrels per day more than the total crude available. On Sunday China’s State Council announced plans to “vigorously boost consumption” in what it dubbed a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption. This morning China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s Industrial Production grew to 5.9% in the first two months of 2025 from a year ago, above economists 5.3% forecast, although Industrial Production declined from the 6.2% growth rate posted in December. President Trump said today that a meeting with President Xi Jinping will happen in the “not too distant future.” China’s Shanghai 300 Index closed lower by -0.24% today, after a strong +2.43% gain posted last Friday.
President Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!” Since 2023, the Houthis, who are primarily funded by Iran, have been disrupting international shipping in the Red Sea, carrying out more than 100 attacks on shipping vessels and rerouting oil tankers that would typically pass through the Suez Canal. A Houthi representative said the USS Harry S. Truman was attacked by the rebels this morning, this comes after the U.S. conducted two airstrikes on Saturday on a port controlled by the group. Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said attacks on American ships would continue until the USA stops its airstrikes on Yemen. The Pentagon said this initial wave of U.S. airstrikes have hit over 30 Houthi sites so far, inflicting dozens of casualties.
President Trump said he would speak with President Putin tomorrow morning, as optimism has increased for a 30-day ceasefire period between Ukraine and Russia. Trump said “We’ll be talking about power plants.” and “I think we’ll be talking about land,” The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said a drone strike was carried out on the Moscow Oil Refinery on March 11th, the Moscow Oil Refinery is one of the largest refiners in Russia, processing up to 11 million metric tons of oil per year, covering 40 to 50 percent of Moscow’s gasoline and diesel supplies. Russian crude flows in the four weeks to March 9th increased by 300,000 barrels per day, which was the largest four week gain since January 2023, per Reuters. President Trump last week threatened Russia with “large scale sanctions” and tariffs if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire deal. Meanwhile on Saturday UK Prime Minister Starmer said 25 other allied European leaders have agreed to keep tightening restrictions on Russia’s economy as the war in Ukraine continues.
Last week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by +1.448 million barrels over the previous week, against a forecast of a +2mb build,U.S. oil inventories are about 5% lower than their five year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of -343,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s report. U.S. oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day last week, a +321,000 bpd increase from the previous week’s report. Refineries operated at 86.5% capacity last week U.S. gasoline inventories had a large draw of -5.7 million barrels, outperforming a forecast of a -1.9 million barrel draw. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by -6 million barrels last week.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed the number of U.S. oil rigs increased by +1, to a total of 487, year over year it is -23 rigs lower. Canada’s oil rigs declined by -31, to a total of 139.
The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all closed higher. The Dollar Index closed lower by -0.30%, settling at 103.41, trading near its October 2024 level, as the dollar continues to unwind.
Tomorrow API will put out their weekly energy report and new U.S. Industrial Production Data will be released. The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet Tuesday-Wednesday, with Fed Chair Powell speaking Wednesday. On Wednesday the EIA will release their weekly U.S. energy inventory data. The API said President Trump will meet with oil executives this week.
Price Thoughts – WTI Crude oil held above its $67 short-term resistance / long-term support line again, while the same could be said for Brent and its $70 level. Think today the rally was off the back of renewed China’ economic stimulus pledges (although again there was sort of a lack of substance) and ramping up of Iran-U.S. tension (we already know sanctions will be tightening their output), which again is the headline trading which has become so commonplace, in my opinion. I expect API and EIA data will determine whether we continue to trade in our short-term range of $65-$67 for the remainder of the week, over the headlines, although this meeting between Putin and Trump tomorrow could be bearish if sanctions are alluded to being taking off.
$65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s still resistance in the $67 handle, above that $70, above that $74.50. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$75 range rather than the $70-$80 range for 2025 for WTI.
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Jim Rinaudo
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