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Commentary
Wheat prices slid yesterday and finished slightly lower again today. Yesterday’s WASDE raised world ending stocks more than anticipated and lowered US exports. More supply and less demand usually equals lower on the Board. Nothing bullish for the bulls so far aside from another missile attack in Eastern Europe. The port of Odessa was hit by a Russian missile yesterday and 4 shipworkers were killed. The US held Ukraine/Russia cease-fire talks in Saudi Arabia yesterday and the proposal will now need to be approved by Russia. Canada estimates its wheat acreage will rise 2.6% or .5 million hectares in 2025. Over the next 5 days the southern Plains will be mostly dry, and temperatures will remain warm through the 6-to-10-day timeframe. Precipitation is expected in the far northeast Plains over the next week, but the southern half of the belt misses out. As crops in the US and black sea come out of dormancy, moisture needs will increase in my opinion. While current fundamentals highlighted yesterday by the USDA do not show a reason to be overly bullish right now in my view, prices may drift lower. Currently the lack of weather premium built into the market could become a significant bullish factor if weather conditions worsen in the Plains or Black Sea over the next several weeks is my belief. Chicago wheat has support at 551. Consecutive closes under and its 530 (last week’s low). Under that 5.24 is next. Resistance is 557 and then 561. A close over and its 574/577 the next key resistances. A close over this area and the market challenges 592 to 597.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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