3/10/25
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The Cattle Markets were mixed today, with the Fat and Feeders both having about a 2-dollar range. The April’25 Fats set another high today. April’25 Live Cattle were 30 cents higher today and settled at 200.57 ½. Today’s high was 201.65 and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 199.60 and the 1-month low is 189.50. Since 2/10 April’25 Live Cattle are 2.10 higher or more than 1%. The Feeders made a new high as well but fell from there. April’25 Feeder Cattle were 22 ½ cents lower today and settled at 277.92 ½. Today’s high was 278.80 and that is the new 1-month high as well, and just 1.22 ½ below the 52-week high of 279.02 ½. Today’s low was 276.40, and the 1-month low is 262.90. Since 2/10 April’25 Feeder Cattle are 10.25 higher or almost 4%. The Hogs were higher again and almost gained a buck. April’25 Lean Hogs were 95 cents higher today and settled at 88.30. Today’s high was 88.42 1/2 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 87.10 and the 1-month low is 80.72 ½. Since 2/10 April’25 Lean Hogs are 3.70 lower or more than 4%. Not much action on the close as the Fats and Feeders close the day not far from unchanged. There is still a big, long position held by the Funds in the Live Cattle Contract. The end of March will be the end of the first quarter of the year, and I expect profit taking. President Trump sent a letter to khomeini, the Iranian leader, and stated that he hopes tensions could be resolved diplomatically, but if not, military force would be used. khomeini basically said he would not be forced to do anything. I am sure there are back-channel discussions taking place, but right now it looks like there could be a problem, and I do not believe President Trump bluffs very often. That could contribute to an already breaking stock market. The US Stock Markets all got hammered today, and I am already hearing there are fears of a recession. None of that would help the Cattle Markets, as purse strings would be tightened. The April’25 Fats made another new 1-month high today, but broke from there, slowly closing more than a dollar off the high. The April’25 Feeders had the same pattern today and settled almost a dollar off the new 1-month high, and negative for the day. The 100-Day moving average for the April’25 Fats is 193.31, and the 200-Day is 189.87. The 100-Day moving average for the April’25 Feeders is 259.93, and the 200-Day is 253.85. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low sits near the 200-Day moving average for both contracts as well. The April’25 Hogs are still heading in the right direction and settled just 33 cents below the 100-Day moving average of 88.63.
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I see two big trades for this year. You are watching the Natural Gas trade unfold now, with much more upside to come in my opinion. The second is the Soybean Oil. It has been knocked down, and I feel it is ready to shoot much higher. Timing is everything, and there is still time to take advantage of both markets now. The first step is calling me and opening an account.
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The Grain Markets remained mixed today, with the Beans and Wheat moving in the opposite direction. May’25 Soybeans were 11 cents lower today and settled at 1014. Today’s high was 1032 ½ and the 1-month high is 1072 ¾. Today’s low was 1012 ¼ and the 1-month low is 991. Since 2/10 May’25 Soybeans are 51 ½ cents lower or almost 5%. The Corn market closed higher again today. May’25 Corn was 2 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 472. Today’s high was 474 ¾ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 518 ¾. Today’s low was 466 ½ and the 1-month low is 442 ½. Since 2/10 May’25 Corn is 32 ½ cents lower or more than 6%. The Wheat Market had a double digit gain today. May’25 Wheat was 11 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 562 ½. Today’s high was 566 and the 1-month high is 621 ¾. Today’s low was 553 ¼, and the 1-month and 52-week low is 530. Since 2/10 May’25 Wheat is 30 cents lower or more than 5%. My market outlook and opinion on the Grains and especially the Soybeans has shifted. Brazil is still going to have a huge crop, but I feel there are too many other factors that could send the Soybean complex higher. I think it is time to start looking at the drought in the Midwest. It has gotten worse since the beginning of the year, 11% worse, and the lack of snow did not help anything. 43% of the Midwest is now considered in a drought, with 25% of the Midwest abnormally dry. If the Midwest does not get relief, there could be a problem here this summer. There has already been an acreage shift from Soybeans into Corn for the 2025 planting season. Another reason I feel the Soybean complex can rally is because of the low Soybean Oil stocks. The Malaysian Palm Oil Market has exploded and is no longer cost effective. Many Palm Oil contracts have been cancelled and replaced with Soybean Oil. I feel the demand for Bean Oil will increase greatly through the rest of the year. This alone could lift the entire Bean Complex. Then there is the possibility of banning Chinese used cooking oil. If that were to happen, there would be a strong surge in the Soybean Oil. It was also reported today that President Trump could meet with XI in China, in April. If that were to happen, I think it would be logical to expect a trade deal to be worked out, benefitting the Grains, and especially the Soybeans. So, a combination of all those factors, has made me look for the upside in the Soybean Market. The Corn Market will probably head higher as well in my opinion. The Corn and Beans can still trade lower in the short term, but in the long term I am now Bullish. The Wheat will continue to have big swings, and if Iran is attacked, the Wheat will skyrocket higher. There is a WASDE Report tomorrow, and we will see if that has any market changing news at 11:00am central time.
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I will be out of town starting this Friday, March 14th – 23rd. I will be back int the office Monday, March 24th. I will be available to take calls and enter trades.
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It was a pleasure to meet everyone at the Commodity Classic in Denver, and at Cattle Con last month in San Antoino. If I can do anything for you, please give me a call.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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It was a pleasure to meet everyone at the Commodity Classic in Denver, and at Cattle Con last month in San Antoino. If I can do anything for you, please give me a call.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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