For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 04, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Lean Hogs opened lower and made the high of the day at 87.275. It broke down the rest of the session, going limit down at the low at 84.30 and settling just above the limit at 84.375. The breakdown after Wednesday’s strong bounce back rally took price below support at 87.10 , the 50 DMA now at 86.60, support at 85.325 to the 100 & 200 DMAs now at 84.30 and 84.275 respectively. This is a critical area for Hogs in my opinion. The breakdown came about in my opinion as the Trump administration re-iterated that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico of 25% will start on March 4th and there will be an additional increase in tariffs on China at the same time. Traders fear this will impact exports in a big way as they are among the top 5 markets for US Pork. Mexico is the number 1 with Canada at number 4 and China number 5. This could upset demand for pork sending prices spiraling lower and could spark a tariff war if they come back with increased tariffs of their own. This has created uncertainty in the market and traders do not like uncertainty, especially when its government derived. This is disappointing as the cash market has looked like it was stabilizing and the cutout has been coming back with today’s one day taking it back above 100.00. The cold storage report implied that stocks are tight which could have helped spark a seasonal rally. The tariff announcement negated that and we must see this long-term support hold or we could see a bigger pullback. The thing about the tariff issue is the President could change his mind and cause more uncertainty. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 83.25 and then trendline support is next at 82.70. Support then comes in at 81.70. If price can hold settlement, we could see some consolidation within Thursday’s range.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is 96.26 as of 02/26/2025.
The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 89.49 as of 02/25/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 489,000, which is above last week’s 473,000 and last year’s 485,575. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,958,000, which is above last week’s 1,930,000 and last year’s 1,955,900.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
www.walshtrading.com Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.