For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, January 14, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
February Lean Hogs bounded higher on Thursday, trading past resistance at the 13 DMA (82.175) to the high at 82.45 before dipping into the close to settle below it at 81.775. It was a surprisingly strong gap open higher that inspired the run higher with the low coming in at 80.00. The gap is from the Thursday low at 80.00 to the Wednesday high at 79.80. Wednesday’s breakdown took price below support at 78.80 and it was able to rebound after penetrating it to the low at 78.45, creating a Hammer candlestick indicating with Thursday’s price action that Hogs have potentially hammered out a low for the down move it has been in. Cutouts and the cash market have been working lower throughout the down move but the load count for the cutouts has been extremely high in my opinion indicating strong demand as the cutout declined. The strong load counts as the prices declined could lead the grocers to feature pork going forward to try to offset the rising beef prices and balance out their sales. We also have potentially seasonal strength coming as we normally see cash prices move higher as move through the winter season. Exports were delayed a day due to the governments shut down due to the holiday declared for the funeral procession of President Carter. We’ll see!… If price can’t support at 81.70, it could test support at the 100-DMA now at 80.775. Support then comes in at 79.80. If price can overtake the 13-DMA which should be lower on Friday, price could test resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 82.925. Resistance then comes in at 83.325.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 89.09 as of 01/08/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 81.05 as of 01/07/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 488,000, which is below last week’s 489,000 and above last year’s 479,701. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,906,000, which is above last week’s 1,381,000 and last year’s 1,799,344.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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