February Lean Hogs opened lower and traded to the high at 86.075. The rally failed just above the Friday high at 86.00 and the breakdown took price down to support at 83.325, making the low just above it at 83.35. It also took out the Friday low at 83.675 as traders suddenly became nervous about the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, erasing the rally from Friday and heading back towards the recent lows. Hogs were able to hold support and rallied somewhat into the close, settling at 84.375. Cutouts also showed some weakness, down 3.56 on the morning report and then recovering some of the loss on the afternoon report but, still down 2.66 to 94.62. This should put a little pressure on the cutout index on Thursday. Volume was fairly strong in front of the Christmas Holiday as I expect more liquidation taking place. Slaughter was high for Monday as packers front load slaughter dure to the holiday. It is expected to be low for the week and trade should quiet down on Tuesday with trading hours cut so traders can prepare for family and friends. Reports will be delayed as the USDA has stated on the Cutout report that they won’t issue any reports until the 26th. The Hogs and Pigs report is below. If price breaks down from settlement, it could re-test support at 83.325. Support is next at the rising 50-DMA now at 82.875 . Support then comes in at 81.70. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 85.325 and the nearby 21-DMA now at 85.75. Resistance then comes in at 87.10 and then the nearby flat 200-DMA now at 87.30.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 95.84 as of 12/20/2024.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 84.35 as of 12/19/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 1,017.
United States Hog Inventory Up 1 Percent
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2024 was 75.8 million head. This was up 1 percent from December 1, 2023, but down slightly from September 1, 2024.
Breeding inventory, at 6.00 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down 1 percent from the previous quarter.
Market hog inventory, at 69.8 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, but down slightly from last quarter.
The September-November 2024 pig crop, at 35.2 million head, was up 2 percent from 2023. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.96 million head, down slightly from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.92 for the September-November period, compared to 11.66 last year.
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