The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity
March Corn closed up 3 ½ cents today, at 4.40 ¾. Overflowing pressure from the rest of the Grain complex pushed prices lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, to my eye, as both Soybeans and Wheat have set new contract lows this week. Export Sales were announced this morning and they showed a respectable number of 1,174,600 metric tons. This is an increase, week-to-week. Export Inspections, announced Monday, show Corn moving out of the US at a greater pace than last year. Currently that data shows we’ve shipped 13.3 mmt this year, compared to 10.1 mmt in 2023. While it’s not a hugely, wildly bullish export market, it is strong and there is good demand. Prices have faded from the Dec 11th high of 4.51 ¼, which coincided nicely with the 200-day moving average and the round number of 4.50. Traders took some profits off the board at the end of last week and we started this week off firmer. But the weakness in Soy and Wheat on Tuesday and Wednesday leaked into the Corn market and prices retreated. Not nearly as aggressively as the Beans or Wheat, with no +20 cent drops or new contract lows set for Corn. The only slightly negative thing that I see on the chart today is the 5- and 10-day moving averages switching into bearish territory with yesterday’s trade. Thos numbers are at 4.42 ¼ and 4.43, respectively. The 50 and 100-day averages remain below the market price, offering potential support near 4.34 and 4.29 ¼. You can see that the mild uptrend that’s been in place since late-August is still in place (blue upward sloping trendline) and that value is at 4.32 ½ today. I’m a little concerned that the market failed to get through the October high of 4.52 ¼, as I’d like to see new highs with every wave up, so to speak, and we didn’t get that. However, the subsequent pullback hasn’t been excessive (see Soybeans) and no significant support levels have been breached, in my opinion. And last week’s high did exceed the November high of 4.47 3/4, which I continue to believe is a positive sign that the uptrend is intact. I still expect prices to trend higher, but Corn will need to break through the 4.50 mark, on a closing basis, before that can happen. Perhaps the 3rd time (10/2, 12/11 and ??/??) will be the charm, so to speak. You’ll notice that there may be some resistance above the market near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. That does seem like a reasonable target, I think. Long Term trend (red down sloping horizontal) resistance might appear there and that value is about 4.64 today. Producers that wish to re-own bushels they’ve sold can still find good value in the March Call options, to my eye.
Jefferson Fosse Walsh Trading
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