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The Cattle Markets were sent higher this morning for no reason, other than there is a 5-year record long currently in the Market. It was a good rally to sell into, with the January’25 Feeders closing almost $2.00 off the highs, and negative for the day. February’25 Live Cattle were 85 cents higher today and settled at 187.02 ½. Today’s high was 187.87 ½ and the 1-month high is 190.05. Today’s low was 185.90 and the 1-month low is 184.40. Since 11/8 February’25 Live Cattle are 1.72 ½ cents higher or almost 1%. The Feeders gave it all back and settled lower today. January’25 Feeder Cattle were 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 255.80. Today’s high was 257.65 and the 1-month high is 261.20. Today’s low was 255.47 ½, and the 1-month low is 239.90. Since 11/8 January’25 Feeder Cattle are 14.37 ½ higher or almost 6%. The Hogs broke down today. February’25 Lean Hogs were 82 ½ cents lower today and settled at 86.50. Today’s high was 87.87 ½ and the 1-month high is 89.60. Today’s low was 86.20 and the 1-month low is 82.10. Since 11/8 February’25 Lean Hogs are 1.67 ½ higher or almost 2%. The Funds have not been this long in five years. They are now long over 122,000 Cattle contracts after adding more than 7,000 last week. They tried to put a buying scare in the Fats and the Feeders this morning, but traders saw opportunity in the Market and were right. The February’25 Fats gave back half of their gains today and closed 85 cents off the highs. The January’25 Feeders broke $1.85 off the highs today and managed to close lower on the day, and just 32 ½ cents from the lows. The February’25 Fats traded up through the 50-Day moving average of 187.50 today but broke back down through the 200-Day moving average of 186.36, only to settle between the two. I still feel that the next move will be lower, towards the 100-Day moving average of 184.56, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 184.48, and the 1-month low of 184.40. If they come in and start liquidating the 5-year record long, then I think they can trade down to 179-181 levels. There is a Cattle on Feed Report 1 week from Friday and only 15 trading days left in 2024. I do not expect them to stay long forever, without banking some profits in the next two weeks. If they lift the ban on Cattle for Mexico sooner than later, it could be a race lower. It has been in a trading range for a while, and when it breaks out, it can go one of two directions. It seems much easier to break from here to me. The Feeders are the ones that can take the biggest hit. The January’25 Feeders are about 15 dollars higher over the last month. Every moving average or important level is below the 250.00 level. The 200-Day moving average is 249.76, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 247.61, the 50-Day moving average is 247.48, and the 100-Day moving average is 242.35. If the January’25 Feeders start trading below 255, I think we could see some substantial selling pressure, and trade down to the 250 level. Another 5 dollar break from there is possible as well. I have been hearing the feedyards are over capacity as well. If you would like more information, use this link Sign Up Now
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The Grains were mixed today, with the Beans once again providing the perfect opportunity to sell them over $10.00. January’25 Soybeans were 3 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 990. Today’s high was 1003 ½ and the 1-month high is 1042 ¼. Today’s low was 985 ¾ and the 1-month low is 975 ¼. Since 11/8 January’25 Soybeans are 40 ¼ cents lower or almost 4%. The Corn Market continued North today. March’25 Corn was 1 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 441 ¾. Today’s high was 442 and the 1-month high is 445 ½. Today’s low was 437 ½ and the 1-month low is 425 ½. Since 11/8 March’25 Corn 2 ½ cents lower or about ½%. The Wheat Market ticked a little higher today. March’25 Wheat was 1 ½ cents higher today and settled at 558 ¾. Today’s high was 564 ¾ and the 1-month high is 589. Today’s low was 553 ¾ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 540 ¼. Since 11/8 March’25 Wheat is 28 ¾ cents lower or almost 5%. If the Beans trade above $10.00 again, selling them could be a good idea. The January’25 Soybeans traded up to 1003 ½ this morning, before breaking 17 ¾ cents off the highs. They traded down to 985 ¾, before climbing 4 ¼ cents of the lows and closing at 990. I have said before that I think the January’25 Beans would trade between 970-1000 for a while. We probably won’t see the lows in the Beans for a couple of months, when we see just how big the South American crop actually looks. I still like the Corn Market, and think it can trade higher from here, but not much higher, at least not yet. I will look to sell around 448 if it trades that high. The Wheat can still do anything, and I would rather be long right now. The world got worse over the weekend, and who knows what the takeover in Syria will lead to. I am still Bullish the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas Markets. If you would like more information or want to see my recommendations, use this link Sign Up Now The WASDE Report is tomorrow, and we will see how much price action that will produce. Next year will be here fast, and there is still time to open an account before this year ends. I will be at Cattle Con next year in San Antonio, February 3-6. I will also be at the Commodity Classic in Denver March 1-4. I will be attending other shows as well, but those are the first two of the year. Stop by the Straits Financial/Walsh Trading booth if you are there, I would like to meet you, and I hope to see you there.
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