10/18/24
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The Livestock Markets bounced back today but did not close well. The Fats closed more than a dollar higher. December’24 Live Cattle were 1.15 higher today and settled at 187.32 ½. Today’s high was 187.67 ½ and the 1-month high is 188.55. Today’s low was 186.25 and the 1-month low is 179.80. Since 9/18 December’24 Live Cattle are 7.47 ½ higher or more than 4%. The Feeders were higher today as well. January’25 Feeder Cattle were 2.37 ½ higher today and settled at 245.50. Today’s high was 246.15 and the 1-month high is 248.52 ½. Today’s low was 243.27 ½ and the 1-month low is 233.75. Since 9/18 January’25 Feeder Cattle are 12.40 higher or more than 5%. The Hogs were higher again. December’24 Lean Hogs were 15 cents higher today and settled at 77.82 ½. Today’s high was 78.37 ½ and the 1-month high is 78.42 ½. Today’s low was 77.27 ½ and the 1-month low is 72.40. Since 9/18 December’24 Lean Hogs are 3.95 higher or more than 5%. The Cattle Markets ended the day higher but broke off the highs late in the day. I still think the Cattle Markets will head lower sooner than later. I feel the December’24 Fats will head to their 50% retracement level of 182.29, and the 50-Day moving average of 181.38, but first the market needs to close below 186.15 and the Market traded just 10 cents from that level on the lows today. January’25 Feeders have the most volume now, so I switched from the November’24 Feeders so you know. However, the November’24 Feeders were 1.60 higher today. The November’24 Feeders were much higher, gaining 2.37 ½ today, The November’24 Feeders are still 2.10 above January’25 Feeders. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets. The USDA increased their 2024/2025 Beef production estimates and are slightly higher for this year and increase more than 4% for next year. The USDA also reduced beef export numbers by almost 3% compared to last year, and next year is estimated to drop 12%. Australia’s Beef exports to the US have increased dramatically from 11,000mt per month in 2022, to almost 40,000mt this past August. Through August of this year, Australia’s share of US beef imports has increased 10% since 2022, to now counting for 22% of the total US Beef imports. Australia’s share of China’s Beef imports has increased as well, up 1% to 8%, and the US share has dropped from 7% to just 5%. China’s Beef imports as a whole have declined as well. More than 540,000mt of beef were imported to China in September, but that is over 4% less than in August, and over 9% less than last year. Through August this year China has imported less than 5.00mmt of meat, a decrease of about 13 ½% from the same time frame last year. H5N1 has continued to cause problems and has new hit almost 100 Dairy Herds in California and Idaho in the last month alone. There have also been poultry outbreaks of Bird Flu in Washington and Utah affecting close to 3 million birds. It is just about migration season and things can spread quickly, and you know the USDA will be testing everything Nation Wide.
The Grains all moved lower today, with the Beans dropping back down, close to yesterday’s lows. November’24 Soybeans were 18 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 970. Today’s high was 995 ½ and the 1-month high is 1069 ¾. Today’s low was 969 ¼ and the 1-month low 968 ¼. The 52-week low is 955. Since 9/18 November’24 Soybeans are 44 cents lower or almost 4 ½%. The Corn Market lost a couple cents today. December’24 Corn was 2 cents lower today and settled at 404 ¾. Today’s high was 409 ½ and the 1-month high is 434 ¼. Today’s low was 403 ¾ and the 1-month low is 399. The 52-week low is 385. Since 9/18 December’24 Corn is 8 cents lower or almost 2%. The Wheat Market imploded again today. December’24 Wheat was 16 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 572 ¾. Today’s high was 595 ½ and the 1-month high is 617 ¼. Today’s low was 570 ¼ and the 1-month low is 564. The 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 9/18 December’24 Wheat is 3 cents lower or about ½%. The International Grain Council raised its 2024/2025 Global Soybean production estimates by 2mmt to a record 421mmt. That is 26mmt more than last year or more than 6 ½%. The Corn numbers were left alone at 1.224bmt, and the wheat stayed the same as well at 798mmt. China imported 11.37mmt of Soybeans in September. That is down 770,000mt or over 6% lower than the record numbers in August. The shorts recaptured yesterday’s losses and momentum today, closing just ¾ of a cent off the day’s lows and only 1 ¾ cents off the 1-month lows of 968 ¼. The 52-week low is only 15 cents away at 955. I still think we can see the Beans about 50 cents lower from here. My low-price target range has been between 910 and 930, so 920 would make sense to me. I still think we will see a quick rally of a dollar or more after the lows have been made. I have already structured trades in the August’25 Soybeans. Those trades would capture any moves higher during Brazil’s planting now, growing season, and harvest. Along with US plantings next year and most of the growing season as well. I have been Bearish for over a year, and that has worked out pretty damn well, but that will come to an end soon. The upside is more fun anyway. I would like an opportunity to work with you. If you are Hedging or Trading, I know I can help your bottom line. I know you are still busy but give me a call when you have a chance to talk about it.
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Today’s Brazil Weather Map Below.
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-Bill
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Bill Allen
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