For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 22, 2024, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
Commentary
December Lean Hogs opened unchanged, rallied to a new high for this grinding up move at 78.425, and then broke down to the low at 77.05. It bounced and settled at 77.675. The rally stalled below resistance at 78.80, which then saw price pullback re-test the 50-DMA now at 77.275. Settlement was below the key level at 77.80. Traders were eager to take price higher early in the session looking to pull away from the key level at 77.80 but couldn’t sustain the aggression, bringing price back to the 50-DMA. The positive for bullish traders is it was able to settle above the 50-DMA but, the price action formed a Doji candlestick which indicates indecision in the market. This comes on the heels of a solid rally on Wednesday and could lead Hogs back into the trading range it is trying to break away from. As Hogs continue to grind to new highs, it has pulled back after these highs to test the low of the trading established on October 3rd at 75.025. With the Doji candlestick in place after making the new high will the pullback into the consolidation area return? We’ll See!… The cash indices continue to drift in a tight range but the Lean Hog Index has made a new low with Thursday’s print, so we have to pay attention to continued weakness now that it has made a new low. The seasonals indicate a potential for weakness but slaughter levels have been lower than expected and demand continues to be relatively strong between the consumer and exports. Exports will be released Friday morning before the open and could have an effect on the price action to start the day. If price holds settlement, we could test resistance at 78.80. Resistance is next at 79.80. A breakdown from settlement will likely have support at the 50-DMA and then 76.175. A failure from here could see support revisited at 75.60.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked lower and is at 94.69 as of 10/16/2024.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 83.85 as of 10/15/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 486,000, which is below last week’s 487,000 and last year’s 486,918. The estimated slaughter for the week is 1,932,000, which is above last week’s 1,928,000 and last year’s 1,925,666.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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