December Lean Hogs opened lower, traded to the session low at 75.775, and then grinded higher to the high at77.35. It dipped and settled at 76.825. The rally took price to a new high for the up move, testing resistance at the 50-DMA now at 77.125, with resistance holding with the lower settlement. The early breakdown took price right down to Friday’s low and above support at 75.60. The cash market continues its seesaw battle, up a little, down a little, keeping cutouts and the cash market in the lower end of its recent range. Production continues to be on the high side as heavy weights and seasonally strong, slaughter numbers continues to provide ample product for consumers. Demand looks good as the ample supply hasn’t tanked prices. The December futures have been strong but it is still trading at a discount to the Lean Hog Index, indicating expectations are for prices to decline as we head towards expiration of the contract. If price fails at settlement, it could test support at 76.175. A breakdown from here could see support at 75.60. Support then comes in at the rising 8-DMA now at 75.175. If price retakes the 50-DMA, we could test resistance at 77.80. Resistance is next at 78.80.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 95.26 as of 10/04/2024.
The Lean Hog Index ticked lower and is at 84.83 as of 10/03/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 485,000 and last year’s 481,394.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 08, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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