December Lean Hogs opened lower, traded up to the high of the day at 74.90(which was the previous day’s settlement) and then fell apart, trading down to the session low at 72.80. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled at 73.925. I believe the drop in price came about as traders lightened positions in front of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released after the close. The report’s highlights are below. The cutout index and the cash market are comfortable (so far) around 95 for the cutout which in turn has seen the Lean Hog Index stabilize just below 85. This has created some volatility in the December Hogs, leading to the pullback from the recent high at 75.80. The low tested support at 72.80 and settlement was below the key level at 74.25. If price retakes the key level at 74.25, we could re-test resistance at 75.60. Resistance then comes in at 76.175. If price fails to hold settlement, we could re-test support at 72.80. Support then comes in at 71.825.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked lower and is at 94.23 as of 09/26/2024.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 84.05 as of 09/24/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 486,000, which is above last week’s 463,000 and below last year’s 486,111. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,938,000, which is above last week’s 1,891,000 last year’s 1,934,414.
United States Hog Inventory Up Slightly
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2024 was 76.5 million head. This was up slightly from September 1, 2023, and up 2 percent from June 1, 2024.
Breeding inventory, at 6.04 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from the previous quarter.
Market hog inventory, at 70.4 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up 2 percent from last quarter.
The June-August 2024 pig crop, at 35.0 million head, was down 1 percent from 2023. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, down 2 percent from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.72 for the June-August period, compared to 11.61 last year.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 01, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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