9/25/24
There was not much action today in the Livestock or Grain Markets today, but the Grains rallied late. The Fats were a little lower today. December’24 Live Cattle was 7 ½ cents lower today and settled at 184.32 ½. Today’s high was 184.55 and the 1-month high is 184.92 ½. Today’s low was 183.72 ½ and the 1-month low is 173.50. Since 8/25 December’24 Live Cattle are 9 12 ½ higher or mor than 5%. The Feeders made a small gain. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 22 ½ cents higher and settled at 246.02 ½. Today’s high was 246.50 and that is the 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 245.02 ½ and the 1-month low is 229.57 ½. Since 8/25 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 11.65 higher or almost 5%. The Hogs were down a little. December’24 Lean Hogs were 7 ½ cents lower today and settled at 74.90. Today’s high was 75.30 and the 1-month high is 75.80. Today’s low was 74.40 and the 1-month low is 70.00. Since 8/25 December’24 Lean Hogs are 4.15 higher or almost 6%. The Cattle Markets did not do much today, even as the Dow Jones Index was down more than 300 points during the trading session. Argentina signed a new trade deal with China earlier this year, and they will be exporting beef to China starting next year. Colombia has allowed US Beef back into their country, after the H5N1 scare. This week’s Cattle slaughter is expected to be the smallest since 2015, with less than 600,000 head. There is a possible US port strike coming on the East and Gulf coasts. That could be a problem for the Cattle Market if the strike takes place. Us Beef exports would probably be hurt even during a short strike. Port experts have stated that a strike that lasts for 1-week could back up the ports till mid-November and a 2-week strike could back things up into 2025.
The Beans and the Wheat rallied late today. November’24 Soybeans were 11 cents higher and settled at 1053 ¼. Today’s high was 1054 ½ and the 1-month high is 1058 ¼. Today’s low was 1031 ¼ and the 1-month low is 960 ½. Since 8/25 November’24 Soybeans are 80 ¼ cents higher or more than 8%. The Corn was positive as well. December’24 Corn was 3 ½ cents higher and settled at 415 ½. Today’s high was 415 ½ and the 1-month high is 418 ¼. Today’s low was 408 ½ and the 1-month low is 385. Since 8/25 December’24 Corn is 24 ¼ cents higher or more than 6%. The Wheat finished strong today. December’24 Wheat was 11 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 589 ¼. Today’s high was 591 ¼ and the 1-month high is 598 ¾. Today’s low was 573 ¾ and the 1-month low is 520 ¾. Since 8/25 December’24 Wheat is 61 ¼ cents higher or more than 11%. Short covering, that is the main reason the Beans are rallying. There were rumors this morning of China buying a large quantity of Soybeans, but that has not been confirmed yet and might not matter anyway. November’24 Soybeans traded up to 1054 ½ today, with 1055 being an important price level. Argentina said their Grain and Oilseed exports could reach a 4-year high, with their soil moisture back to an acceptable level. Argentina said earlier this year they planned on planting 7% more Soybeans this year, due to the leafhopper problem affecting the Corn Crops there. Rain showers are now forecast for parts of Brazil next week, with some showers starting Saturday near Sao Paulo. Although it is not yet a country wide rain, it is a good beginning, with the monsoons typically arriving in the beginning of October. Next week’s quarterly Grain Stocks will be released on Monday, and estimates are expecting Stocks to be up 31% from September of 2023. I am still bearish the Beans for all the same reasons, and after the Funds feel more comfortable, maybe the Market will start to move.
-Bill
I have market commentary and option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540
Chicago, Illinois 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.