December Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has overtaken the volume of the October contract. It opened unchanged, traded to the session high at 74.475and then broke down to the low of the session at 73.70. The high and low were in by 10 AM and the market consolidated the rest of the session, settling near the high at 74.30. The rally took price past resistance at 74.25 and settlement was just above it. The cash index could be stabilizing with the Lean hog Index unchanged from the day before and expected to be slightly higher on Friday. The Fed also cut interest rates on Wednesday, sending equity markets soaring, giving traders some confidence that pork demand will remain strong and possibly grow as consumers feel wealthier with the higher potential for equity markets. The dollar is trading near its recent lows and this could also help our already strong exports as our foreign customers could load up on our pork if the Dollar continues to cheapen. Production remains strong and it looked like it was going to put pressure on the cutout market but that also seemingly has stabilized in the low to mid 90’s and the load counts have been excellent indicating strong demand in this area. We’ll see!… The Thursday high is a new high for the recent up move, overtaking the September high at 74.075, indicating that bulls are in control of the price action for now. If price holds settlement, we could test resistance at 75.60. Resistance then comes in at 76.175. If price falls below 74.25, we could see some profit taking as we end the week, testing support at 72.80.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 94.33 as of 09/19/2024.
The Lean Hog Index is unchanged and is at 84.22 as of 09/12/2024.
Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 479,000, which is below last week’s 483,000 and last year’s 489,426. The estimated total for the week is 1,907,000, which is below last week’s 1,936,000 and last year’s 1,948,990.
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, September 24, 2024, at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
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