The Nov WTI trading session settled at 69.88(-0.08), had a high of 70.31, a low of 68.58. Cash price is at 71.21(+1.07), while open interest came in at 346,083. Higher on the day by -0.11% CLX traded above its 7 day (68.2) but below its 20 day (70.42), its 50 day (73.59), and its 200 day (74.94) moving-averages. The COT report as of 9/13 showed commercials with a net short position of -207,021 (less short by 32,348 compared to last week) to non-commercials who are net long 174,881 (less long by -29,903 compared to last week).
The EIA this morning showed that the week ending in September 13th U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5mbpd, down by 283,000bpd barrels from the previous week’s average and U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of 545,000bpd compared to the prior week. Yesterday the API reported a -1.63mb draw for the week ending September 13th, a bigger draw than the forecasted ~0.2mb draw. This is the 12th straight week of lowering oil stockpiles.WTI opened to the upside but trended lower throughout the day, briefly trading higher after the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, but turning negative again along with the major Indexes soon after. The 50 point rate cut over the 25 point rate cut, may signal to traders, in my opinion, that the potential for a recession is increasing. We saw another round of hacking done by Israel against Hezbollah this morning, as Israel detonated Hezbollah members’ handheld radios and walkie talkies. Hezbollah has since vowed revenge and I would not be surprised if we saw them launch retaliatory rockets into Israel in the near future, which in turn I would think would lead Israel to become more aggressive with the potential for sending in their own ground troops into Lebanon. It seems to me as though the war premium appears to be resurfacing as we head into our own Presidential election. I still believe Nov is looking to push above that $70 resistance point, and once we have a session close above that figure we could see the mid 70’s in play. If the bearish days continue we’re looking to muddle around in the mid to high 60’s (I see support around $68.00). For now the charts are showing a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, so we shall see.
Jim Rinaudo
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Walsh Trading
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