The Nov WTI trading session settled at 69.96(+0.94), had a high of 70.65, a low of 68.51. Cash price is at 70.14 (+1.49), while open interest came in at 323,438. Higher on the day by 1.36% CLX traded above its 7 day (68.04) but below its 20 day (70.59), its 50 day (73.79), and its 200 day (74.96) moving-averages. The COT report as of 9/13 showed commercials with a net short position of -207,021 (less short by 32,348 compared to last week) to non-commercials who are net long 174,881 (less long by -29,903 compared to last week).
WTI continues its rally and looks to meet Brent above the $70 price line any day now, which could create a breakout higher in my opinion. I want to note this is the first time the WTI cash market has traded above $70 since the beginning of the month. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement came out with a statement on Monday reporting that oil and gas production is close to being back to normal after Hurricane Francine disrupted output last week. The BSEE statement indicated, based on reports from operators, around ~12.18% of oil and natural gas production still remains offline. The war-premium resurfaced a bit this morning as news came in over Israel hacking Hezbollah members pagers, causing them to explode and inflicting over 1,000 casualties, this, one would think, would heat up tensions on the border of Israel and Lebanon. Per CME’s Fedwatch Tool they have the odds for a 475-500 target rate (BPS) at 61%, while a target rate (BPS) of 500-525 is at 39% as of this morning. In my opinion, traders will remain focused on supply and demand trends and the economic conditions in both the U.S. and China as we head into the fall and winter months.
Jim Rinaudo
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Walsh Trading
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